Мобильные платформы для беспроводной сенсорной сети
The development of production and consumption technologies for the road transport has led to large scale introduction of alternative energy in this sector. These alternatives to the conventional petroleum fuels include biofuels, electricity, natural gas and synthetic fuels produced from coal and natural gas. However, it is very important to point out, that inter-fuel competition is determined not only by the development of technologies, but also by such parameters as availability, fuel cost, consumer preferences and government legislations, all of which vary greatly across the globe. In other words, the very same technologies can be capable of radically altering the fuel mix in some countries while having little to none impact in the others. The topic of the inter-fuel competition development in the transportation sector holds much importance for Russia, as the country’s fuels mix is almost totally dominated by the petroleum products. The diversification of energy sources for transport may positively influence energy security and domestic fuels market stability; reduce the strain on ecology, especially in major cities; all the while increasing Russian oil and petroleum products export potential.
The article presents results of the research for prospects of the developments in Russian transport sector fuel mix. The research was carried out using the tools of economic and mathematical modeling under various scenario assumptions. The analysis has shown that natural gas and, to a lesser extent, electricity hold the best prospects as petroleum products substitutes in the long-term. Their cumulative share in the total energy consumption of the road transport sector has the potential of reaching as high as 26% by 2040. Yet, the extent of substitution largely depends on the government actions for infrastructure development and tax incentives for alternative vehicle owners.
A scenario-based prognosis of the evolution of global power generation markets until 2040, which was developed using the Scaner model-and-information complex, was given. The perspective development of fuel markets, vital for the power generation industry, was considered, and an attempt to predict the demand, production, and prices of oil, gas, coal, and noncarbon resources across various regions of the world was made. The anticipated decline in the growth of the global demand for fossil fuels and their sufficiency with relatively low extraction expenses will maintain the fuel prices (the data hereinafter are given as per 2014 prices) lower than their peak values in 2012. The outrunning growth of demand for electric power is shown in comparison with other power resources by regions and large countries in the world. The conditions of interfuel competition in the electric power industry considering the changes in anticipated fuel prices and cost indicators for various power generation technologies were studied. For this purpose, the ratios of discounted costs of electric power production by new gas and coal TPPs and wind and solar power plants were estimated. It was proven that accounting the system effects (operation modes, necessary duplicating and reserving the power of electric power plants using renewable energy sources) notably reduces the competitiveness of the renewable power industry and is not always compensated by the expected lowering of its capital intensity and growth of fuel for TPPs. However, even with a moderate (in relation to other prognoses) growth of the role of power plants using renewable energy sources, they will triple electric power production. In this context, thermal power plants will preserve their leadership covering up to 60% of the global electric power production, approximately half using gas. Keywords: electric power, gas, coal, renewable power sources, power consumption, fuel extraction, fuel markets, interfuel competition, social efficiency, cost of electric power production