Scenarios of Development of the Modern Global Economy with Various Growth Poles
The purpose of the article is to develop scenarios of develop8 ment of the modern global economy with various growth poles and to determine the 9 optimal new trajectory of its development. Methodology: In order to determine the 10 current growth poles of the modern global economy, the authors use the methods of 11 regression and factor analysis (for assessing the contribution of various economic 12 spheres into formation of the global GDP and growth rate of the global economy. 13 The empirical base of the research is statistical data of the World Bank and the 14 International Monetary Fund. Results: Scenarios of development of the modern 15 global economy are compiled with various growth poles—agriculture (source of 16 growth: Agro 4.0) industry (source of growth: Industry 4.0), innovations (source of 17 growth: high-tech), and service sphere (source of growth: e-commerce). These scenarios are compared through the prism of potential of growth (perspectives of 19 innovational development), sustainability of growth (ecological effectiveness), risk 20 level (susceptibility to crises), and probability. A conclusion is made that these 21 operations should not be necessarily viewed as alternative, and their complex 22 implementation will allow achieving the highest effectiveness of growth and 23 development of the modern global economy. Recommendations: a model of mul24 tipolar development of the modern global economy is recommended. The advan 25 tage of this model is diversity of poles and sources of growth of the global GDP, 26 systemic interaction of which ensures the emergence of the synergetic effect— 27 additional acceleration of the rate of economic growth.