Stagnating Socio-economic Systems
The obtained conclusions show opposition of stagnation and sustainable development. Stagnation is absence of economic growth and development, regardless of social and ecological costs of economic activities. Contrary to it, sustainable development means stable economic growth with low social and ecological costs of economic activities. That’s why stagnation of economy is a negative phenomenon. Unlike crises, stagnation could and should be avoided with the help of the corresponding (anti-stagnation) measures of crisis management.
Among key problems of strategic development of the Russian Federation – a gain of the advanced positions in a global competition, an exit on standards of a life of the developed countries. Methods of achievement of the proclaimed priorities among which predominate an emphasis on realisation of innovations and optimisation of use of regional and human potentials are defined also. It means also working out of essentially new domestic industrial policy which main objective – stimulation of transition of a national economy on the way of development allowing a science and hi-tech sectors of the industry to become by the locomotive of economic growth, to provide adequate conditions for development for industrial sector of economy. Many questions concerning a theme of research carried out in the given collection, successfully dare in the European countries. Therefore studying a positive European experience important for decrease in vulnerability of domestic economy in the face of many global problems. These problems demand today adequate reactions at level of an industrial policy, start of new industrial strategy. In this work it is a lot of the specific proposals directed on the further development of the Russian industry. Authors have formulated both new tactical and strategic ideas, not ordinary decisions for achievement of leadership in the field in the future.
In the article we study the reasons and character of economic growth in Russia in the beginning of the XXI-st century. The analysis of the features of economic development is a key to understanding of depth of modern crisis in Russia. This article exhibits institutional preconditions for an overcoming the crisis and acceleration of economic growth.
Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In the forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development. The present paper analyzes some aspects of the population ageing and its important consequences for particular societies and the whole world. Basing on this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future technological breakthrough is likely to take place in the 2030s (which we define as the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution). In the 2020s – 2030s we will expect the upswing of the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave, which will introduce the sixth technological paradigm (system). All those revolutionary technological changes will be connected, first of all, with breakthroughs in medicine and related technologies. We also present our ideas about the financial instruments that can help to solve the problem of pension provision for an increasing elderly population in the developed countries. We think that a more purposeful use of pension funds' assets together with an allocation (with necessary guarantees) of the latter into education and upgrading skills of young people in developing countries, perhaps, can partially solve the indicated problem in the developed states.
The report considers the basic methods of simulation of socio-economic systems and processes such as system dynamics and multi-agent-based computer simulation, their possibilities in studying the dynamic aspects of the processes of strategic development of socio-economic systems. It offers the methods of combining composite system-dynamic and agent-based models, allowing us to investigate the dynamics of socio-economic processes by a cyclic interaction of processes of individual and group behavior of economic and social agents at the micro level with the basic processes of socio-economic system at the macro level. The report outlines the key areas of improvement of technology of simulation and scenario approach procedures for strategic planning and development of socio-economic systems.
Seasonality and cyclicity - are two influential factors that affect dynamics of macroeconomic indicators both during the year and longer periods of time. In this article are discussed methodological questions that arise during seasonal decomposition of the GDP by factors for the year when balance aggregate and factors ratio is constant. Economic cycles mechanisms origin and their identification questions based on the combination of classical methods of spectral analysis and historic approach. Presented is the fact that along with more regular cycles such as investment and Kondratiev wave, influence of shocks (such as «oil prices crises») appear so called causal cycles that lead to a serious change in technological base of production. Particular importance (emphasis is placed on ) a new technological wave which is expected to strike the world in 2020 th and those goal set before the Russia. This research is done on the basis of world and Russian (national) statistics.
The article describes the methodology for identifying and analyzing the economic cycles, which are based on historical spectral approach that combines the advantages of the historical and economic analysis and spectral method of the study of economic series.The proposed method is used to isolate and analyze of (both their own) regular oscillations of economic dynamics inherent in the developed economies, and the vibrations induced by technological and external economic shocks.
The analysis carried out on the basis of data on the dynamics of the post-war U.S. economy as the main recipient world cycles, and economy of Russia from 1861 to 2012 with using the latest research on the reconstruction of its economic dynamism. Finally, conclusions are drawn in relation to the economic policy of the state in the global cyclical development.