Emerging Technologies, Trends and Wild Cards in Human Enhancement
Scott L. Newbert, PhD, is associate professor of management, Harry Halloran Emerging Scholar in Social Entrepreneurship, and Anne Quinn Welsh Faculty Fellow in Honors at Villanova University. His research on the socioeconomic impacts of entrepreneurial activity and valuation strategies for small firms has been published in numerous journals, including Strategic Organization, Small Business Economics, and Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice. He received his doctorate in strategic management and entrepreneurship from Rutgers University.
This book provides an impressive overview of emerging technologies, especially nanotechnologies and biotechnologies, and their prospective applications. It identifies and describes existing and potential markets for emerging technologiy-based applications, and projects scenarios for macroeconomic development based on these technologies. Integrated roadmaps for the development of a nano- and bioindustry are shown and policy measures and corporate strategies developed to advance these technologies. These measures are illustrated using roadmaps and policy case studies.The book combines a practical, comprehensive overview of the technical side of emerging technologies and their applications in various fields with an analysis of market developments and characteristics.
This paper deals with the creation of a new approach of roadmapping for emerging technologies on the example of applying nanotechnology for water treatment. The suggested approach combines revealing both possibilities of production and prospective consumer requirements in relation to innovative outcomes. The integrated roadmap allows revealing and estimating urgent challenges connected with insufficient water provision for citizens, setting goals for organisations working in this sphere and developing special measures to meet these challenges. This concept was used for roadmap development for nanotechnology water purification technologies with special emphasis on water treatment in Russia. The introduced approach is applicable not only for the sphere of emerging technologies but with some adaptation also for forecasting and strategic planning for corporations and government bodies.
The paper provides a number of proposed draft operational guidelines for technology measurement and includes a number of tentative technology definitions to be used for statistical purposes, principles for identification and classification of potentially growing technology areas, suggestions on the survey strategies and indicators. These are the key components of an internationally harmonized framework for collecting and interpreting technology data that would need to be further developed through a broader consultation process. A summary of definitions of technology already available in OECD manuals and the stocktaking results are provided in the Annex section.
Nanotechnology is a rapidly evolving area of knowledge related to the development of the methods of study and control of the matter at the molecular level to produce materials, devices, and systems with new technical, functional, and consumer properties that were impossible to achieve previously. The rapid expansion of nanotechnology R&D carries not only promised benefits, but also potential economic, social, environmental, legal, and ethical risks. Tha paper introduces national regulatory framework for nanotechnology development and provides an overview of available statistical indicators for assesing its potential economic impacts.
Novel biotechnologies drastically enhance human capacities. However, initial optimism concerning new methods of therapy and body modification gradually gives way to fears that technologies can easily get out of hand and alter human nature in an undesirable way. Philosophers approach bioethical discussion from various assumptions and perspectives: while some of them believe that new technologies enhance and better human beings, others are concerned those technological innovations can be perilous. This paper overviews the discussion between utilitarians and bioconservatives on the extent to which human enhancement technologies should be permitted. I suggest an alternative communitarian approach to consider human beings primarily as members of political communities and recognition-seekers. I take the debate on doping legalization in sports to demonstrate how communitarianism doesn’t reject new technologies and still argues for making them work for preservation and flourishing of human communities. All major decisions on regulating biotechnologies should be made by communities themselves in a democratic way and drawing on bioethical expertise.
The report suggests an approach to analyze domain structure of science and technology. Trend monitoring in technologies and markets is described and formalized as the basis for the information analytical system.
Relations between the human and hi-tech worlds, even until recently considered the subject of science fiction, are taking a more real shape and becoming the focus of expert discussions. Some specialists suggest that in the future machines can become the principal creator of new technologies and race far ahead of humanity. However, emerging technologies for human enhancement offer new possibilities for humans to remain competitive against machines and to acquire more advanced physical and mental capacities. These techniques are interdisciplinary, drawing primarily on advances in medicine, pharmacology, nutrition, mobile communications, neuroscience and cognitive sciences. This paper provides examples of such developments, analyzes their contribution to the expansion of human capabilities and, consequently, implications for the future working environment. It addresses ethical issues and risks associated with human enhancement technologies, in particular, the emergence of the new social divide - between the users of such technologies and people lacking access to them. Finally, it discusses some wild cards that may cause future surprises and shocks, i.e. machines that can control a human-excluded world, a virtual level of human life that dominates real life. The author notes that such conditions will require rethinking established views of personality, human responsibility and mutual obligations that will help the establishment of new behavioral patterns.