Modelling Possible Oil Spills in the Barents Sea and their Consequences
The oil and gas industry growth has increased rapidly in the Barents Sea during the last few years. The Arctic zone is considered to be a relatively clean area. However, there is a certain number of “hot spots” in the Arctic due to the activities of extracting companies.
We study the problems connected with the production of these two types of fossil fuel and carried out simulation model. This model shows the results of oil or gas flowing accident related to drilling complex, taking into account sea currents, winds, temperature and ice. By using this model, we can highlight areas in the Barents Sea with the highest potential of the disaster so that preventive measures could be taken. In addition, this model helps to organize elimination of fossil fuel flowing consequences.
The paper deals with an investigation of relief formation in Europa's surface. Jupiter's satellite Europa is close in size to the Moon. Its surface is covered with a layer of ice crust of thickness 10-30 km. Europa's surface is of large interest, because under the ice crust there is an ocean of liquid water creating conditions for possible life. The entire ice surface of the satellite is covered with a system of bands, valleys, and ridges. These structures are explained by the fact, that the ice surface is rather mobile and it was repeatedly broken from internal stresses and large-scale tectonic processes. The analysis performed showed that compressing, extending, shearing and bending stresses can influence some arbitrarily separated section of Europe's ice surface. The computer simulation with a finite element method (FEM) was performed to see, what types of defects could arise from such effects. The heterogeneity of the satellite's ice cover in thickness, density and temperature was taking into account during the simulation. The calculations, carried out for the cross-section of a thawed ice structure's area, have shown that, the most dangerous, from the crack formation viewpoint, is the shear stress at loading application angles of ±90°. Using models of thawed ice patches in the distributed field of temperatures, the effect of mechanical gravitation-tidal forces on the formation of surface defects on Europa was studied. It is shown that fractures and cracks can have various forms depending on the stress-strained state arising in their vicinity. The formation of such defects is caused by the chaotic set of many factors, mechanic and temperature ones predominantly. Copyright © 2013 by the International Astronautical Federation. All rights reserved.
Mathematical and computer simulation of economic processes.
Risk Management approach is an essential part of the project. Large industries and particular companies incorporate RM Culture. Statistics shows, that companies with Project Management (PM) Structure reduce cost ineffectiveness up to 20%. In oil and gas industry PM Risk Analysis (PRMA) has been widely used for the last years. Various models and procedures have been developed to manage projects of different scale. Nonetheless, Offshore Projects (OP) complexity, high uncertainty of technical, financial, market and government factors, as well as different sea conditions, still makes sense to improve general PRMA models according to the oil and gas OP features. Traditional RM tools and techniques are not appropriate to cope with complex projects in the Arctic. Companies will have to modify risk assessment process or look for new methods. The paper suggests OPRMM, where the attempt to implement PM tools and techniques together with mathematical modeling and expert assessment is made and institutional factors are included. Practically, it is founded on the comparison between offshore field development in the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea. The reason for research is debates around future Arctic oil and gas projects and their commercial potential. Several large projects with participation of major international companies in the Barents Sea and the prospectivity of the Kara Sea Projects in conditions of technology difficulties are under discussion and have not reached the investment project phase yet. OPRMM starts with identifying the key factors, which could affect offshore field development. Inside the investment regime modified real option value (ROV) model for OP is developed: stop option and scale transformation option. Basing on the binominal trees and Monte Carlo Simulation it is possible to see the perspectives of the OP at an early stage in the conditions of high uncertainty. Incorporating the ROV model into investment regime allows operator to choose the territory to explore. The research shows, that offshore projects in the Arctic offshore is not only under the pressure of internal corporative factors, but also under influence of external institutional factors. New tools and approaches will be required in Arctic projects where no one wants to be looking in the wrong place.
The global warming leads the situation in the Barents Sea to important consequences, such as easier process of oil and gas drilling. As a result, it may raise the discussions on disputed shelf zones with fossil fuels’ deposits, especially near to Norway-Russia sea border.
We construct a model, which highlights potentially disputed territories, analyzes preferences of the countries interested in different types of resources.
In recent years, several assistive devices have been proposed to reconstruct arm and hand movements from electromyographic (EMG) activity. Although simple to implement and potentially useful to augment many functions, such myoelectric devices still need improvement before they become practical. Here we considered the problem of reconstruction of handwriting from multichannel EMG activity. Previously, linear regression methods (e.g., the Wiener filter) have been utilized for this purpose with some success. To improve reconstruction accuracy, we implemented the Kalman filter, which allows to fuse two information sources: the physical characteristics of handwriting and the activity of the leading hand muscles, registered by the EMG. Applying the Kalman filter, we were able to convert eight channels of EMG activity recorded from the forearm and the hand muscles into smooth reconstructions of handwritten traces. The filter operates in a causal manner and acts as a true predictor utilizing the EMGs from the past only, which makes the approach suitable for real-time operations. Our algorithm is appropriate for clinical neuroprosthetic applications and computer peripherals. Moreover, it is applicable to a broader class of tasks where predictive myoelectric control is needed.
The results concern roll pass design for rolling a round bar of a 20mm diameter from a 55mm diameter input. Concerning materials, this roll pass design must cover a wide range of steels, from low-carbon micro-alloyed steels to stainless steels. The roll pass design proposal takes into consideration lower plasticity of certain steels. The comparison was enabled by suggesting two roll pass designs. The classical oval-round roll pass design, where the maximum extension coefficient is set to 1.55 in oval and 1.22 in round grooves. The second roll pass design uses a combination of smooth part of the roll (curves) and round roll passes. Distribution of the extension coefficient in individual passes is similar to that of oval-round series. The paper also compares values of energy-force parameters calculated analytically using the method of finite elements. If we compare the distribution of temperature, stress and size of the grain, it is proved that the oval-round roll pass designs are the best as far as the balanced distribution of the above-mentioned values is concerned. The roll pas design combining smooth part of the roll with a round part does not achieve such balance. However, its advantage lies in far lower requirement for the needed length of the working part of the roll. Five passes are carried out on the smooth part of the roll, which considerably cuts down the required length of the roll body. Therefore it is this variant that will be used in the laboratory of wire rolling created within the project RMSTC.
In the article are esteemed assigning and main capabilities of the subsystem of the analysis and maintenance of thermal values of designs of radio electronic means ASONIKA-T, and also principles of simulation of thermal processes in designs with the help of the subsystem ASONIKA-T. The example of simulation of thermal processes in a standard design is adduced.