Трансдисциплинарные органоны гуманитарного знания. Дискуссия на пленарном заседании «Интеграция гуманитарных и естественно-научных знаний: информационные подходы» Седьмых гуманитарных чтений РГГУ
The article is devoted to the analysis of research tools that are dominant in international relations forecasting. The study is based on quantitative description of 160 prognostic articles from leading journals on international relations for the period from 2006 to 2015. An innovative typology of prognostic studies is proposed and tested. The typology introduces a distinction between «weak prognoses» (probabilistic predictive statements that appear as extrapolations of deductive nomothetical theories) and «strong prognoses» («ideographic» predictions that are formulated as scenarios of possible future developments in specific situations and with specific sets of actors). The study shows that it is the weak prognoses that are the dominant type of forecasts in contemporary international studies. The dominance of the weak approach to forecasting remains total, despite the fact that it is almost two decades ago that its fundamental limitations were demonstrated and a “forward reasoning” approach suggested as an alternative. The methodology of Teaching, Research, and International Policy project was applied for a more detailed epistemological profiling of the field. It showed that academic forecasting in international relations is dominated by quantitative methods and positivist non-paradigmatic approaches. As to the traditional paradigms, it is liberalism that is the most common with Marxism being completely neglected. The described profile of the field follows the trends that are inherent in the discipline of international relations in general. The findings of the study can be interpreted from the perspective of possible tracks for the development of forecasting methods in the Russian school of international relations.
Given article is fifth of a series of articles, devoted to “a zero level” of language C#. Methods, classes, references, and constructors in C# are considered.
The success of any logistics provider under the development of a digital economy directly depends on the decision-making system, taking into account the dynamic nature of the environment and the optimal construction of the internal structure. In an effort to ensure a stable economic position in a competitive market, they pay more attention to both process monitoring, management system analysis and forecasting tasks. At the same time, classic models based on imitating modelling of processes and systems are proposed; for the study of control models, it is necessary to supplement the analysis based on structural diagrams and dynamic links. The use of dynamic links significantly expands the functionality of modelling methods and allows not only to investigate the stock turn, but also to simulate the control actions on the system to achieve the specified parameters. Modelling processes based on dynamic links allows us to investigate the stability of logistics systems, to assess the impact of disturbances on the system and elements. The proposed management model for the logistics system is implemented according to the feedback control principle, which additionally contributes to the formation of a more accurate decision-making system. The developed model has the ability to scale for different levels of planning and takes into account the dynamic nature of the processes in the logistics system, taking into account the influence of the environment. The article additionally outlines the limits of application of simulation modelling in the AnyLogic environment for the study of control systems, which substantiates the practical importance of using structural diagrams and dynamic links for logistic systems.