Влияние кризиса на положение социально-демографических групп населения
36 scenarios of the population projection for Russia until 2030 are presented and analyzed. Prognostic hypothesis of changes in fertility, mortality and migration are described, and the choice of number of projection scenario is explained. Possible changes in the size and age structure of the population are considered. Particular attention is paid to future dynamics of the main large age groups (children, population in working age and elderly) and to the possible changes of dependency ratio.
Persisting high levels of cardiovascular mortality in Russia present a specific case among developed countries. Application of cardiovascular risk prediction models holds great potential for primary prevention in this country. Using a unique set of cohort follow-up data from Moscow and Saint Petersburg, this study aims to test and recalibrate the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) methods for predicting CVD mortality risks in the general population. The study is based on pooled epidemiological cohort data covering the period 1975–2001. The algorithms from the SCORE project were used for the calibration of the SCORE equation for the Moscow and St. Petersburg populations (SCORE-MoSP). Age-specific 10-year cumulative cardiovascular mortality rates were estimated according to the original SCORE-High and SCORE-Low equations and compared to the estimates based on the recalibrated SCORE-MoSP model and observed CVD mortality rates. Ten-year risk prediction charts for CVD mortality were derived and compared using conventional SCORE-High and recalibrated SCORE-MoSP methods. The original SCORE-High model tends to substantially under-estimate 10-year cardiovascular mortality risk for females. The SCORE-MoSP model provided better results which were closer to the observed rates. For males, both the SCORE-High and SCORE-MoSP provided similar estimates which tend to under-estimate CVD mortality risk at younger ages. These differences are also reflected in the risk prediction charts. Using non-calibrated scoring models for Russia may lead to substantial under-estimation of cardiovascular mortality risk in some groups of individuals. Although the SCORE-MoSP provide better results for females, more complex scoring methods involving a wider range of risk factors are needed.
Developmental risk refers to conditions, characteristics, experiences, or situations with potentially deleterious effects that lead to outcomes later in life that do not meet societal expectations. While risk is typically framed as the statistical probability of a problematic outcome in relation to the general population, the converse notion of well-being is considered in relation to the level of functioning at a given developmental stage. The contributors to this volume provide insight into developmental well-being by examining the ways that culture and context affect outcomes associated with various types of risk, such as those related to oppression, academic performance, family background, life history, physical health, and psychiatric conditions. Even though certain outcomes may seem inevitable in cases involving harmful environments, diseases, and disorders, they are virtually all influenced by complex interactions among individuals, their families, communities, and societies.
This volume explores a wide range of case studies, analyses, histories, and polemics on the fate of post-socialist Europe and why that matters to readers today. Nearly 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the post-socialist economies of the former East remain adrift, buffeted by the international financial crisis, the Ukraine crisis, and the ongoing instability in the European Union. This new book brings together a diverse range of scholars in offering a comprehensive look at the struggles faced by policymakers, economists and business people across the former East, and the ways that they responded to crisis. This volume also will be of great value to policymakers, academics, historians, and economists seeking to understand possible influence of China's One Belt One Road policy on Eastern Europe and Russia.
China's economic success is largely determined by very low population dependency ratio. This situation was a result of the demographic policy in the PRC. However, another consequence of the same policy becomes imminent rapid aging of China's population. It is very likely that by the early 2030s the country after half a century of unprecedented success will enter a period of coping.
The paper uses the data of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Study to analyze the change in the state of health of the Russian population in the post-Soviet period. Age is regarded as a factor with a potential to influence incidence of chronic disease, disability and self-preservation behavior. The authors stress the importance of such factors of health deterioration as smoking and alcohol consumption.
This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations.
Among the topics in this ambitious volume:
· Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis.
· Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape.
· How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future.<
· The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South.
· Where the U.S. is likely to stand on the future world stage.
Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers, global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change.