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Курение сигарет в условиях экономической нестабильности: влияние финансового стресса и антитабачной политики на поведение работающих курильщиков в россии (анализ панельных данных)
Significance. Over the past two decades, Russia has experienced a series of economic crises during which many individuals faced financial stress caused by debt, declining income, and fear of job loss. During the same period, the country tightened its tobacco control policies, which were expected to reduce the prevalence of smoking. However, the effect of stress associated with crises on tobacco consumption remains unclear. At the same time, monitoring the population’s addictive behaviors during crisis periods is essential for developing public health protection tools and minimizing the adverse consequences of tobacco use for both smokers and society as a whole.
Purpose. To assess the impact of economic crises, financial stress, and tobacco control policies on the prevalence of smoking among employed Russians.
Material and methods. This study uses data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of the National Research University "Higher School of Economics," covering the period from 2000 to 2023. Statistical and econometric methods were employed, including binary choice models with fixed effects, to estimate the impact of different levels of financial stress and periods of economic crisis on smoking probability while controlling for individual-specific and temporal factors.
Results. Cigarette consumption was found to be associated with financial stress, but this relationship varied depending on the level of stress, individual characteristics, and specific contextual factors such as the presence of crises and the stringency of tobacco control policy. Moderate and high levels of stress among men were associated with a reduction in smoking, whereas among women, a decrease in smoking was observed only under moderate stress. During the period of lenient tobacco control in 2008–2009, the number of cigarette consumers increased; the tightening of tobacco restrictions during the 2014–2015 crisis was accompanied by a significant decline in smoking prevalence; in 2020, despite the crisis, smoking prevalence remained stable under a moderate excise policy.
Conclusions. The study confirms the need for an adaptive approach to tobacco control policy that considers the economic context and gender differences in the perception of financial stress. A reduction in smoking prevalence during economic crises is likely to be more effective when strict tobacco control measures are combined with social and psychological support for those who wish to quit smoking. It is recommended to develop gender-sensitive smoking cessation programs, expand educational and awareness campaigns, and integrate stress management and smoking cessation services.
Scope of application. The results can be used to improve tobacco control policies during economic crises in order to decrease smoking prevalence among working men and women.