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August 11, 2026
‘The Peak of Stupidity and ‘The Valley of Despair: HSE Economists Propose an Explanation for the Dunning–Kruger Effect
The Dunning–Kruger effect, which describes a sharp surge in self-confidence among beginners followed by an equally rapid decline as they gain experience, can be explained by the nature of the learning process and the acquisition of new knowledge. This conclusion was reached by Andrey Vorchik of the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences together with independent researcher Murat Mamyshev. They developed a mathematical model of learning and demonstrated how subjective confidence is formed and changes as knowledge accumulates, as well as how teachers can reduce the ‘valley of despair’ experienced by learners.
July 24, 2026
‘I Like Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
Andrey Vorchik studies happiness, delivers popular science lectures, and believes that science should address social issues as well. In an interview for the Young Scientists of HSE University project, he spoke about how emotions influence decision-making, the Bermuda Triangle formed by the bathroom, refrigerator, and bed, and the ideal formula for education.
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Physicist Nina Dzhanayeva, recipient of a Vladimir Potanin Foundation scholarship, focuses her research on nanophotonics. In this interview for the HSE Young Scientists project, she discusses nanowells, scientific intuition, and how physics can help in making frangipane cream puffs.

 

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Global Measures of the Environmental Burden of Disease (EBD)

P. 343–351.
Milovantseva N., Ogunseitan O. A., ​Weltman R.

The two major methodological approaches to quantify the health of populations and the burden of disease globally and regionally are (1) exposure-based methods and (2) expert opinion-based methods. In exposure-based methods the relationships between exposure and response to specific risk factors are defined through epidemiologic studies and the estimated attributable fractions are used to generate disease burden expressed quantitatively. The Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), a composite measure of morbidity and mortality associated with risk factors, is a widely used has become a universal index of disease burden. Detailed assessment of disease burden using this approach has been produced for at least six environmental risk factors and five occupational risk factors at the global level. Expert opinion-based methods rely on systematic literature reviews and surveys of experts across disciplines and geopolitical regions, who are asked to judge which fraction of the total burden of disease can be attributed to environmental a specific factors. This approach has been used to estimate the fraction of disease burden that can be attributed to the environment within 85 out of 102 major disease categories identified by World Health Organization (WHO). While global burden of disease quantifies the amount of disease due to specific causes, global Environmental Burden of Disease (EBD) estimates which fraction of the total burden of disease can be attributed to environmental risks. Together, these studies are based on both methods have revealed considerable disparities across regions and countries in the Environmental Burden of Disease (EBD), ranging from one-tenth to more than two-thirds of the total burden of disease that can be prevented through improving environmental quality. These differences are not only caused by actual dissimilarities in underlying environmental quality, but also by differences in calculation approaches and assumptions made.

Language: English
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Keywords: Global Burden of DiseaseAir qualityAttributable riskEnvironmental Burden of Disease (EBD)Quality of lifePollution

In book

Encyclopedia of Environmental Health, 2nd Edition
Oxford: Elsevier, 2019.
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