How to estimate the impact of a single project on the outcomes of a target program in government sector – opinions or facts
One of important problems of state expenses planning is non-transparency of cause-and-effect relations between measures (projects), which implementation was planned to achieve certain strategic goals. A traditional tool for overcoming these problems is creation of target programs. However, mechanical integration of projects into one target program will give no results from the standpoint of financial allocation decision making. The problem is that relationship between targets, tasks and specific projects are objectively complex. This complexity entails the possibility of arbitrary interpretations, non-purpose expenditures, attempts to attract all financial resources to one side and etc.
One of efficient tools for solving such problems through defining of strict relationship between expenses incurred and expected specific social and economical results of governmental organizations' activities is a methodology named Performance budgeting. The essence is that for any project, included into a certain program, should be defined how and to what extent this project facilitates achieving of the final goal of the whole program. During the program build-up stage this impact will be nothing but hypothesis, which later should be specified based on accumulated statistical data about values of metrics, characterizing program immediate outputs and final outcomes (hereafter - output/outcome metrics). Actually evaluation of metrics' impact could be implemented for operational adjustment of target programs finance allocation for their most effective spending.