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Russian Business Tendency Surveys by HSE and Rosstat
Ch. 13. P. 233–251.
The chapter describes information content, methodological features and national practices of business tendency surveys (BTS) in Russia. These surveys are conducted jointly by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) and the Russian Federation State Statistic Services (Rosstat), and provide qualitative data on sectoral trends and short-term fluctuations over the last two decades.
The Russian BTS system covers a wide range of regions, sectors and economic activities that makes possible sectoral benchmarking. The BTS results have statistically significant compatibility with quantitative statistics and comply with international standards. These properties allow integration of the survey results in both national and international information infrastructures. Composite indicators of business confidence, business climate and economic sentiment provide early warning of changes in sectoral and overall economic activities in Russia.
Publication based on the results of:
Lola I. S., Asoskov D., Russian Journal of Economics 2024 No. 10(4) P. 351–364
This paper investigates the utility of business uncertainty indicators as predictive tools for forecasting economic activity in the context of Russia. In an era characterized by global economic volatility and geopolitical shifts, understanding the dynamics of economic uncertainty and its impact on overall economic performance is of paramount importance. The study utilizes a comprehensive dataset ...
Added: December 10, 2024
Lola I. S., Bakeev M., Manukov A., Вопросы статистики 2024 Т. 31 № 1 С. 5–21
В статье изложены основные результаты исследования по разработке методики и апробации инструментария, для регулярного мониторинга деловой среды в России посредством измерения уровня ее неопределенности и выявления степени ее влияния на динамику экономической активности на основе анализа конъюнктурных обследований бизнеса. Данная методика впервые протестирована для оценки неопределенности деловой среды и ее воздействия на цифровое и технологическое ...
Added: October 13, 2023
Liudmila Kitrar, Tamara Lipkind, Gumeniuk K., / Series WP 2022 "Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series ". 2022. No. WP 2.
This paper analyses the short-term effects of aggregate economic sentiment on expected GDP growth in Russia based on the results of regular large-scale business and consumer surveys for 1998–2021. The main purpose of our study is to investigate the predictive value of the opinions and expectations of economic agents, especially in the context of crises and uncertainty. A composite ...
Added: February 4, 2022
Lola I. S., Bakeev M., Manukov A., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2021. No. WP BRP 120/STI/2021.
The paper discusses various aspects of digital environment and activity of enterprises from the Russian manufacturing sector in 2020 using the evidence from business tendency surveys. Based on aggregate sectoral and industrial assessments, such as the Digital Climate Index (DCI), the Digital Intensity Index (DII), the Digital Employment Index (DEI) and the Digital Vulnerability index ...
Added: June 23, 2021
Kitrar Liudmila, Lipkind Tamara, Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review 2021 Vol. 9 No. 1 P. 7–29
Objective: The objective of the article is to prove the empirical and predictive value of the aggregate opinions of businesses and households for expanding cyclical macroeconomic data in Russia, especially during the coronavirus shocks.
Research Design & Methods: We use qualitative information from surveys that cover about 24,000 organisations and 5100 households in all Russian regions. The total economic ...
Added: April 6, 2021
Kitrar Liudmila, Lipkind Tamara, / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2021. No. WP BRP 118/STI/2021.
The article analyses the short-term effects of aggregate economic sentiment on the expected GDP growth in Russia based on the results of regular large-scale surveys of business activity of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for the period 1998-2020. The main purpose of the study is to substantiate the predictive value of ...
Added: March 17, 2021
Kitrar L. A., Lipkind T. M., Экономическая политика 2020 Т. 15 № 6 С. 8–41
The article analyzes the relationship between aggregate economic sentiment and GDP growth in Russia in the context of the regular large-scale surveys of business and households for the period of 1998–2020. The aim of the study is to prove the empirical value of the opinions of economic agents in expanding macroeconomic information, especially in a time of sudden crisis ...
Added: December 20, 2020
Lola I. S., Manukov A., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2020. No. 113/STI/2020.
The Article Studies The Predictive Capabilities Of Qualitative Assessments Of Employment Expectations Obtained From Business Tendency Observations Of Entrepreneurial Activity, Which Are Currently A Widespread Source Of Economic Information Both In National And International Practice. The Study Is Based On Market Surveys Conducted By Rosstat, Which Characterize The Expected Level Of Business Activity In The ...
Added: October 27, 2020
Lola I. S., Ikonomicheski Izsledvania 2020 No. 4 P. 70–88
This paper expands the existing informational and analytical opportunities of application of the results of business tendency surveys which solve the problem of the loss of valuable statistical information in its traditional aggregation into simple and composite indicators. Based on methods of multidimensional classification, we develop and discuss an algorithm of statistical analysis that significantly ...
Added: August 13, 2020
Lola I. S., Bakeev M., Информационное общество 2020 № 5 С. 89–97
The paper examines the benefits associated with digital technologies in Russian manufacturing enterprises, which act as drivers for management decisions on the implementation of digital technologies. The empirical basis of the study is the results of business tendency monitoring of enterprises for 2019. As the results show, among the expected benefits, the most important are ...
Added: July 15, 2020
Kitrar Liudmila, Lipkind Tamara, Ostapkovich Georgy, / NRU HSE. Series SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION "SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION". 2020. No. WP BRP 1 10 STI /20 20.
This study proves the efficiency of the results of business and consumer surveys for the first early estimates of GDP growth in Russia. For the expert community, the use of this alternative information, which is not revised over time and covers major economic activities, is essential when up-to-date traditional statistical information is not available, is ...
Added: June 18, 2020
Lola I. S., Manukov A., Bakeev M., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2020. No. 108.
The article proposes a methodology for using macro-level stress testing based on the results of business tendency surveys to study possible scenarios for the development of crisis dynamics triggered by external unforeseen supply and demand shocks, as in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as a review of existing approaches in the field ...
Added: May 28, 2020
Kitrar Liudmila, Lipkind Tamara, Gumeniuk K. et al., / Series WP "Inclusive and Sustainable Development Working Paper Series". 2020. No. 7/2020.
This study determines the effectiveness of using assessments and expectations of economic agents in the analysis of macroeconomic development. The paper tests the hypothesis of the cyclical interaction between economic growth and entrepreneurial behaviour. The authors used the composite economic sentiment indicator (ESI), which combined the confidence indicators of all sectoral business and consumer surveys ...
Added: May 22, 2020
Lola I. S., Bakeev M., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2020. No. 107/STI/2020.
This paper investigates the drivers, barriers, and benefits that can be associated with management decisions regarding the implementation of digital technologies in Russian manufacturing enterprises. The empirical basis of the study is the results of the business tendencies surveys for 2018 and 2019. Potential factors for the introduction of digital technologies were divided into three ...
Added: April 7, 2020
Kitrar L. A., Lipkind T. M., Ostapkovich G. V., Вопросы статистики 2020 Т. 27 № 1 С. 53–70
The core objective of the study, results of which are summarized in this article, is to determine the eff ectiveness of using assessments of economic agents in the analysis of sectoral and macroeconomic development. The paper tests the hypothesis of the cross impact of economic growth and entrepreneurial behavior. It is assumed that economical cyclicity ...
Added: February 26, 2020
Kitrar Liudmila, Lipkind Tamara, Ostapkovich Georgy, Journal of Business Cycle Research 2020 Vol. 16 No. 1 P. 59–74
This paper explores the information content of a business tendency survey on the service sector in Russia from 2012 to 2018. Two alternative survey-based indices were developed: a traditional confidence indicator as a simple arithmetic mean of the balance statistics of three respondents’ replies and a business climate indicator (BCI) as the first component of ...
Added: January 30, 2020
Kitrar Liudmila, Lipkind Tamara, / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2019. No. 96/STI/2019.
The paper presents the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) in Russian manufacturing including the medium and high-tech (MHT) manufacturing industries. The authors explain the feasibility of a new alternative measure that summarizes common information of business tendency surveys cleared up of specific fluctuations in individual variables, and give arguments to prove its effectiveness. The resulting BCI ...
Added: August 26, 2019
Kitrar Liudmila, Lipkind Tamara, Ostapkovich Georgy, / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2019. No. 93/STI/2019.
The paper explores the information content of surveys of the Russian services sector using the surveys’ results since 2012Q1 to 2018Q4. To summarise entrepreneurial opinions in a one-dimensional index the indicators of confidence and business climate are calculated. To examine the reaction of GDP to impulses in the business climate indicator and to forecast GDP ...
Added: April 17, 2019
Lola I. S., Gluzdovsky S., / NRU HSE. Series SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION "SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION". 2018. No. WP BRP 90/STI/2018.
This paper expands the existing informational and analytical opportunities of application of the results of business tendency surveys which solve the problem of the loss of valuable statistical information in its traditional aggregation into simple and composite indicators. Based on methods of multidimensional classification, an algorithm of statistical analysis significantly raises the analytical opportunities for ...
Added: November 22, 2018
Kitrar L. A., Lipkind T. M., Ostapkovich G. V., Вопросы статистики 2018 № 4 С. 49–63
The data of business (market) surveys of entrepreneurial activity are an important source of economic information in national and international practice. Their results reflect the specific features of cognitive perception by business agents of business trends and sectoral cyclical events in various sectors of the country’s economy. Using the appropriate measurement procedures for the processing ...
Added: April 28, 2018
Lola I. S., Вопросы статистики 2018 № 3 С. 25–42
This document presents results of non-quantitative observations application and their processing methods, which significantly widen the analytical capabilities of the statistical measurement of the Russian IT market. The need to expand statistical tools that allow to reflect current and future trends in the sectoral development of IT sphere in a fast and visible manner, due ...
Added: February 26, 2018