Russian Business Tendency Surveys by HSE and Rosstat
This document presents results of non-quantitative observations application and their processing methods, which significantly widen the analytical capabilities of the statistical measurement of the Russian IT market. The need to expand statistical tools that allow to reflect current and future trends in the sectoral development of IT sphere in a fast and visible manner, due to the rapid character of penetration of these services into the Russian market, is argued in the paper.
With the help of business climate indicators and construction of different homogeneous behavior models, analysis of business trends in the financial and economic activities of IT organizations is presented, highlighting the specifics of them functioning within the various cyclic episodes of 2010-2017.
The paper presents an analytical aspect of business surveys data processing, which allows highlighting key points in the dynamics of small retail businesses economic development in various phases of business cycle (case study: retail trade). In the introduction in addition to calculating balance characteristics and composite indicator of business conditions the authors substantiate the necessity to implement methodological approach to studying behavioral models of economic entities that are attributable to small retail enterprises, based on the statistical distribution of respondents’ answers. In reviewing cluster analysis individual data for clustering is suggested as variables that are an entrepreneurial assesses the actual and expected trends in real time. Features of the application technique of cluster analysis in determining the different «behavioral patterns» can be classified as individual responses of economic agents at different stages of the business cycle. A more thorough examination of this information may be useful in analyses of various operational indicators of organizations activity. This aspect is essential for investigating small business aggregate behavior in specific phases of business cycle, when it is necessary to detail business reaction with respect to actual or expected economic events.
The data of business (market) surveys of entrepreneurial activity are an important source of economic information in national and international practice. Their results reflect the specific features of cognitive perception by business agents of business trends and sectoral cyclical events in various sectors of the country’s economy. Using the appropriate measurement procedures for the processing of structured distributions of entrepreneurial opinions makes it possible to obtain arrays of information that are the so-called «soft» non-quantitative statistics in the «near real-time» mode.
When analyzing the results of business surveys, first of all, there are the tasks of their quantitative characterization, measuring the relationships between the qualitative characteristics of the objects surveyed and the generalization of the interrelated information into summary indicators characterizing the scale of the distribution of cyclical industry events in the economic development of the country. In this regard, the authors present the main stages and methods for quantifying the results of surveys, in particular the procedure for scaling qualitative characteristics, their quantitative determination; the possibility of applying specific statistical measures is justified. For the generalized measurement of qualitative information, the concepts of horizontal and vertical integration of survey results are introduced. The questions of adequate and logical interpretation of balance statistics, based on subjective assessments of respondents, are considered. The authors formulated reasons for combining the results of the surveys into composite indicators, which make it possible to identify the most characteristic links among simple survey indicators and simplify the analysis and interpretation of the results as a whole.