О чувствительности отраслей и отдельных компаний к состоянию экономической конъюнктуры
Cyclicality of Canadian and Russian industries and Russian companies in terms of the thesis of greater cyclicality of durable goods industries in comparison with nondurable ones is scrutinized by the authors. According to the results the extents of cyclicality of durable and nondurable goods industries in Canada are equal. The theoretical thesis under consideration is correct for the industrial structure of Russia: durable goods industries in Russia are more cyclical than nondurable ones. Moreover, Russian companies also comply with the aforementioned statement. In addition to this the effect of asymmetrical reaction of industries and companies on expansion and contraction happening in the economy is considered in the paper.
In the article we study the reasons and character of economic growth in Russia in the beginning of the XXI-st century. The analysis of the features of economic development is a key to understanding of depth of modern crisis in Russia. This article exhibits institutional preconditions for an overcoming the crisis and acceleration of economic growth.
In the period from the 1920s to 1930s the theory of economic cycles underwent dramatic changes. Due to the research of such famous economists as Nikolay Kondratieff, Joseph Kitchin, Wesley Mitchell, Simon Kuznets, and Joseph Schumpeter the idea of a whole system of economic cycles (with characteristic periods between two and sixty years) was developed. The idea of a system of intertwined economic cycles is nowadays paramount to the school of evolutionary economics and its development promises rather interesting future outcomes. That is why this issue of our ‘Kondratieff Waves’ Yearbook is devoted to the interconnections between various economic cycles.
As to the subtitle of this volume, one should note that many of the contributors refer to the system of cycles and the fact that real economic cycles make up a system, whereas among different types of cycles, the Juglar, Kuznets, and Kondratieff cycles are the most important ones for the present-day economic dynamics.
Although Kondratieff himself considered long waves as above all an economic phenomenon, the theory of the long waves became, however, very actively developed in connection with their political and geopolitical aspects. In this Yearbook, the political aspect of Kondratieff waves is the subject of several articles in the second section.
The last section of this Yearbook is devoted to the heritage of Kondratieff and other prominent economists. The year 2015 marks the 150th anniversary of the outstanding Russian economist, one of the most prominent researchers of medium-term economic cycles, Mikhail Tugan-Baranovsky, and the volume is concluded with Kondratieff's article about him. Concerning 2015, we should mention another anniversary, namely, 30 years since the death of Simon Kuznets (1901–1985).
This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization.
The theoretical contribution to economics of two prominent scientists was investigated and described: the first Russian economist with a worldwide reputation, M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky (1865-1919), and the French independent physiocrat and at one time the Comptroller (Minister) of Finance of France Anne Robert Jacques Turgot (1727-1781).
Seasonality and cyclicity - are two influential factors that affect dynamics of macroeconomic indicators both during the year and longer periods of time. In this article are discussed methodological questions that arise during seasonal decomposition of the GDP by factors for the year when balance aggregate and factors ratio is constant. Economic cycles mechanisms origin and their identification questions based on the combination of classical methods of spectral analysis and historic approach. Presented is the fact that along with more regular cycles such as investment and Kondratiev wave, influence of shocks (such as «oil prices crises») appear so called causal cycles that lead to a serious change in technological base of production. Particular importance (emphasis is placed on ) a new technological wave which is expected to strike the world in 2020 th and those goal set before the Russia. This research is done on the basis of world and Russian (national) statistics.
The article describes the methodology for identifying and analyzing the economic cycles, which are based on historical spectral approach that combines the advantages of the historical and economic analysis and spectral method of the study of economic series.The proposed method is used to isolate and analyze of (both their own) regular oscillations of economic dynamics inherent in the developed economies, and the vibrations induced by technological and external economic shocks.
The analysis carried out on the basis of data on the dynamics of the post-war U.S. economy as the main recipient world cycles, and economy of Russia from 1861 to 2012 with using the latest research on the reconstruction of its economic dynamism. Finally, conclusions are drawn in relation to the economic policy of the state in the global cyclical development.
In many respects, the historical trajectory of the Russian economy during the Twentieth century has been a terra incognita until now. As for the official statistics, there are at least three important reasons for this. First, many relevant indicators were either not measured, or were kept secret and never published. Second, Russia (as the RSFSR) was a part of the USSR, and statistics for the RSFSR was much less prevalent than for the USSR as a whole (historical changes of the Russian borders also require special consideration). Third, an ideological dogma existed about the absence of inflation in the planned Soviet economy; therefore, all deflators (if any) were underestimated, and all aggregates in constant and/or comparable prices were overestimated (as were the corresponding growth rates). As for the unofficial historical estimates, most of them were focused on the USSR, not on the RSFSR. It’s very risky to use them as a proxy for historical indicators of the Russian Federation.
Hence, our first aim was to construct a statistical time-series that might be useful to describe the long-run trajectory of the Russian (the RSFSR and/or the RF) economy. Using previously unpublished data stored in Russian archives, we tried to extend them back as far as possible; in fact, most of them began in the late 1920s.
Our second aim was to denote periods of growth and contraction in the Russian economy and to reveal the economic factors that caused changes in trajectory. Periods of contractions during the era of the planned economy were of special interest for us. We found that recessions had occurred, not only in the market, but in the planned Russian economy as well (of course, with a significant remark that contractions in the planned economy were much rarer, but evidently more destructive).