Форсайт как инструмент формирования будущего в инновационной экономике
One of the most important issues for the world society in the XXI century is a task to provide pure water for citizens. As evidenced results of expert survey, made by the Higher School of Economics
significant part of water sources for drinking water in Russia doesn’t meet necessary requirements. And one of the most adequate solutions to meet this challenge is using the nanotechnologies in processes of water purification that can solve the set of problems such as polluted sources, obsolete equipment, increased risk of diseases etc. Roadmap “Applying Nanotechnology to Water Treatment” was launched by summarizing opinions of expert community participants both national and foreign regarding the most significant nanotechnologies and products made with their help which are used or can be used for water treatment and purification purposes. The aim of the research is to make special innovation routes R&D-technologies-products-markets that could be used by federal and regional authorities and Russian companies working in the field of water purification. The roadmap becomes the first largescale national foresight exercise in the area of nanotechnologies for water purification.
On the Russian population opinion one of the most urgent ecology problems is the water pollution. By the data of Russian Federal Consumer Rights Protection and Human Health Control Service about 37% of the surface sources of centralized drinking water supply don`t meet sanitary norms and rules and 22% of Russian citizens do not have access to centralized water supply .
The study outlined three possible ways of overcoming above marked problems. The first method is based on the modern industrial-management scheme which is traditional for water provision in Russia. The second option suggests cleaning up sources of water intakes. The third way shows an option of varying treatment methods and technologies, depending on customer needs.
The Roadmap developed by Higher School of Economics and Rusnano indentified that nanotechnologies increase the efficiency and decrease energy consumption of traditional as well as innovation processes of water purification. In particular the perspective area of nanotechnology application is lies in the sphere of innovation sorbents and coagulants. Moreover nanotechnologies can also be used in baromembrane processes and membrane bioreactors.
Innovation technologies, processes and products implementation should be specific to individual regions and municipalities. This approach is based on the compliance of centralized and decentralized water supply, inlet and outlet water quality.
The Roadmap results are designed for the formation of government and regional policy on the pure water provision for population and industrial water treatment. Furthermore it indicates the most relevant business ideas and evaluates projects for nanotechnology and nanoproducts used in this field.
In the past decades Foresight has been significantly developed as a tool for long-term forecasting in the field of power generation and energy efficiency. Such research aims at investigation of the most promising innovation strategies in this area, identifying various (including alternative) ways to achieve technological and market goals with the participation of best qualified experts. Such Foresight method as Roadmapping is widespread in the world practice. It helps to shape complex and interrelated views on prospects of innovation development in specific areas of energy efficiency, it links R&D programmes with creation of technologies and products, as well as their subsequent commercialization. The paper provides an overview of the world Foresight experience aimed at creating vision of the future and building innovation strategies related to energy efficiency. Special attention is paid to the Russian research practice, in particular to different types of Foresight projects implemented by the specialists of State University - Higher School of Economics. The authors describe the results of main projects dedicated to shape the future of energy-efficient technologies and to develop of innovation strategies on their application.