Применение метода анализа последовательностей для изучения жизненных путей служивших и не служивших в армии русских мужчин
In this paper there is analysis of motives, wheels and conditions that led to a wave of mass protests against authoritarian rulers in Arab states of Near East and Maghreb. It is shown that corruption in the state power system served as the main incentive for mass protests, and their major wheel was represented by the youth as the most educated, informed and oriented at postindustrial development models part of society. Social networks based both on postindustrial technologies, and on the traditional for the Arab world “technique” of a Friday prayer became an organizational and communication ground. Position of the army serves as a factor influencing “toughness” and duration of resistance in a determinative way. This study was carried out within “The National Research University Higher School of Economicsʼ Academic Fund Program in 2013-2014, research grant №12-01-0150”.
In this paper there is analysis of motives, wheels and conditions that led to a wave of mass protests against authoritarian rulers in Arab states of Near East and Maghreb. It is shown that corruption in the state power system served as the main incentive for mass protests, and their major wheel was represented by the youth as the most educated, informed and oriented at postindustrial development models part of society. Social networks based both on postindustrial technologies, and on the traditional for the Arab world “technique” of a Friday prayer became an organizational and communication ground. Position of the army serves as a factor influencing “toughness” and duration of resistance in a determinative way.
Russia has been characterized by an early and universal marriage for a long time. After the Soviet Union collapse, the average ages for marriage have been rising, marital unions have becoming rarer while cohabitations have becoming common because of changes in norms and values that citizens of many other countries witnessed several decades before. Many scholars have observed this trend and tried to explain its reasons through the perspective of the Second Demographic Transition and Globalization theories. Current research is another attempt to understand these changes. The aim of this research was to define the nature of cohabitations in Russia, and find out the factors of entrance to non-marital unions. For these purposes, we used Event History Analysis and Sequence Analysis. The key requirement in using these methods is applying longitudinal or retrospective collections of data that have become the gold standard of current quantitative social science. Accordingly, the three-wave panel data of the Russian part of “Generations and Gender Survey” and the retrospective data of “Person, Family, Society” were chosen for this study. The opposite trends of matrimonial behavior were revealed: the younger Russian people are, the higher their probabilities to start the first cohabitation and the lower their risks to have the first marriage. Cohabitation is not a complete alternative to marriage in our country yet, but the proportion of Russians, for whom cohabitation does not grow into a marriage, rises, and young people start to consider a non-marital union appropriate for childbearing. It is a sign that cohabitation is close to become an independent social institution for young non-religious people who get secondary vocational education in big cities.
The article is devoted to the investigation of genesis of regular army as a political institution in conditions of political transit in Libya. The chronological scope of the study covers the historical period from 1951, when a sovereign Libyan state with monarchical form of government appeared, until 2011, when Libyan Jamahiriya ceased to exist. We scrutinize problems of collaboration of army with traditional and modern institutions of Libyan society and state; participation of army in development and implementation of domestic and foreign policy. We also examine how system of checks and balances of participation of army in the political process was established and how it was functioning during in the monarchical (1951-1969), Republican (1969-1976) and Jamahiriya (1976-2011) period. The events of 2011-2014 demonstrate the conservation of discovered trends and patterns of socio-political development of the institution of regular army in the new Libyan state.
The International Conference on Sequence Analysis and Related Methods (LaCOSA II) was held in Lausanne, June 8-10, 2016, four years after the Lausanne Conference on Sequence Analysis (LaCOSA). The conference brought together scholars using innovative methods for analyzing longitudinal data in social, managerial, political, population, psychological, health, and environmental sciences with developers of methods for longitudinal analysis. Sequence Analysis (SA) has become a popular exploratory tool in social sciences since the pioneering contributions of Andrew Abbott and the recent release of powerful pieces of software. Nevertheless, SA remains essentially exploratory and needs to be complemented with other modeling tools, especially when it comes to testing hypotheses or studying the dynamics that drives the trajectories. In that perspective, this LaCOSA II conference did not limit itself to SA by also covered alternative longitudinal methods, such as survival and event history analysis, Markov-based and other longitudinal stochastic models. The aim was to debate how these different approaches can complement each other. Alongside three keynote talks by Francesco Billari, Jeroen Vermunt and Aart Liefbroer, 57 papers were presented at the conference. The papers were selected among 79 propositions on the basis of reviews made by members of the scientific committee. In addition LaCOSA II featured also a longitudinal data analysis contest. The present proceedings collect the papers presented at the conference. Some authors chose to not include their full paper for copyright reasons. In those cases only a—short or long—abstract is included. We would like to warmly thank here all members of the Scientific Committee for their scientific support and their help in the reviewing process. Many thanks also to the Organizing Committee, as well as to Christelle Burri for her administrative assistance. We also acknowledge the financial support of the University of Geneva and its Geneva School of Social Sciences, the Foundation and the Institute of Social Sciences of i the University of Lausanne, the Swiss National Center of Competence in Research LIVES and the Swiss National Science Foundation. LaCOSA II would not have been possible without all these supports.