Performance of Machine Learning Algorithms in Predicting Game Outcome from Drafts in Dota 2
In this paper we suggest the first systematic review and com- pare performance of most frequently used machine learning algorithms for prediction of the match winner from the teams’ drafts in DotA 2 computer game. Although previous research attempted this task with simple models, weve made several improvements in our approach aiming to take into account interactions among heroes in the draft. For that pur- pose we’ve tested the following machine learning algorithms: Naive Bayes classifier, Logistic Regression and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees. We also introduced Factorization Machines for that task and got our best re- sults from them. Besides that, we found that model’s prediction accuracy depends on skill level of the players. We’ve prepared publicly available dataset which takes into account shortcomings of data used in previous research and can be used further for algorithms development, testing and benchmarking.