Coherence Analysis of Financial Analysts’ Recommendations in the Framework of Evidence Theory
This article is devoted to the analysis of coherence of financial recommendations with respect to securities of the Russian companies. The study is based on the analysis of approximately 4000 recommendations and forecasts of 23 investment banks with respect to around forty securities of Russian stock market over the period of 2012-2014 years. The predictive history of each of the investment bank was considered as evidence in the framework of evidence theory. The coherence of recommendations was evaluated with the help of the so-called conflict measure between the evidence, which determined on the subsets of the set of all evidence. Then the study of coherence was reduced to analysis of values of the conflict measure. This analysis was performed with the help of game-theoretic methods (Shapley index, interaction index), network analysis methods (centralities), fuzzy relation methods, hierarchical clustering methods.
The conflict measures induced by the conjunctive and disjunctive combining rules are studied in this paper in the framework of evidence theory. The coherence of conflict measures with combining rules is introduced and studied. In addition, the structure of conjunctive and disjunctive conflict measures is studied in the paper. In particular, it is shown that the metric and entropy components can be distinguished in such measures. Moreover, these components are changed differently after combining of the bodies of evidence.
This volume contains a selection of contributions from the "First International Conference in Network Analysis," held at the University of Florida, Gainesville, on December 14-16, 2011. The remarkable diversity of fields that take advantage of Network Analysis makes the endeavor of gathering up-to-date material in a single compilation a useful, yet very difficult, task. The purpose of this volume is to overcome this difficulty by collecting the major results found by the participants and combining them in one easily accessible compilation.
Methods of network analysis are used in this paper for mapping the local academic community of St. Petersburg sociologists. The survey data on relations between individual scholars serve as a guide in reconstruction of the communitys network history as well as a system of independent variables in accounting for differences between its various natural zones. In this manner, the paper explores the points of convergence between Chicago school social ecology and modern social network analysis.
This volume contains two types of papers—a selection of contributions from the “Second International Conference in Network Analysis” held in Nizhny Novgorod on May 7–9, 2012, and papers submitted to an "open call for papers" reflecting the activities of LATNA at the Higher School for Economics.
This volume contains many new results in modeling and powerful algorithmic solutions applied to problems in
- vehicle routing
- single machine scheduling
- modern financial markets
- cell formation in group technology
- brain activities of left- and right-handers
- speeding up algorithms for the maximum clique problem
- analysis and applications of different measures in clustering
The broad range of applications that can be described and analyzed by means of a network brings together researchers, practitioners, and other scientific communities from numerous fields such as Operations Research, Computer Science, Bioinformatics, Medicine, Transportation, Energy, Social Sciences, and more. The contributions not only come from different fields, but also cover a broad range of topics relevant to the theory and practice of network analysis. Researchers, students, and engineers from various disciplines will benefit from the state-of-the-art in models, algorithms, technologies, and techniques including new research directions and open questions.
The current paper aims to present the Scan-4-Light study, which was conducted for the systematic scanning and analysis of the Searchlight newsletters as a rapidly growing collection of articles on trends and topics in development and poverty. Built upon the concept of the systemic foresight methodology, the Scan-4-Light approach involves the integrated use of horizon scanning, network analysis and evolutionary scenarios combined with expert consultations and workshops. The study identified the emerging trends, issues, weak signals and wild cards; created high-value visualisations to emphasize the results and findings; and produced narratives to increase the impact and awareness of the development issues. The Scan-4-Light project has resulted in a large number of specific outputs, providing the views of the Searchlight newsletters' contents at various levels of granularity. It has set out to show how the tools used here can be applied to illustrate the relationships among issues, and how these vary across countries and regions over time, and are linked to various stakeholders and possible solutions to problems. Scan-4-Light demonstrates how foresight tools and techniques can be used for the analysis of complex and uncertain issues, such as development and poverty, in a systemic way. The Scan-4-Light approach can be applied in a number of areas for scanning and identifying emerging trends and issues, and understanding the relationships between systems and solutions. The paper gives evidence that most of the issues, if not all, related to development are not isolated, but interlinked and interconnected. They require more holistic understanding and intervention with an effective collaboration between stakeholders.
This volume contains proceedings of the fourth conference on Analysis of Images, Social Networks and Texts (AIST’2015)1 . The first three conferences in 2012–2014 attracted a significant number of students, researchers, academics and engineers working on interdisciplinary data analysis of images, texts, and social networks. The broad scope of AIST makes it an event where researchers from different domains, such as image and text processing, exploiting various data analysis techniques, can meet and exchange ideas. We strongly believe that this may lead to crossfertilisation of ideas between researchers relying on modern data analysis machinery. Therefore, AIST brings together all kinds of applications of data mining and machine learning techniques. The conference allows specialists from different fields to meet each other, present their work, and discuss both theoretical and practical aspects of their data analysis problems. Another important aim of the conference is to stimulate scientists and people from the industry to benefit from the knowledge exchange and identify possible grounds for fruitful collaboration. The conference was held during April 9–11, 2015. Following an already established tradition, the conference was organised in Yekaterinburg, a cross-roads between European and Asian parts of Russia, the capital of Urals region.The key topics of AIST are analysis of images and videos; natural language processing and computational linguistics; social network analysis; pattern recognition, machine learning and data mining; recommender systems and collaborative technologies; semantic web, ontologies and their applications. The Program Committee and the reviewers of the conference included wellknown experts in data mining and machine learning, natural language processing, image processing, social network analysis, and related areas from leading institutions of 22 countries including Australia, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Cyprus, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, India, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, Qatar, Russia, Spain, The Netherlands, UK, USA and Ukraine.
The article introduces a historical-sociological research project reconstructing intellectual and institutional transformations of post-soviet social sciences in the last 25 years. The projects ambition was to achieve this aim via applying classical community study research strategy and various methods derived from social science history to the case of St. Petersburg sociologists. We identified 622 individuals as St. Petersburg sociologists and traced records of their institutional trajectories, appearance in print, citing behaviour, social networks, political attitudes, sources of income, professional authorities, and attention spaces through 25 years.