Many studies have investigated the impact of a wide range of social events on suicide-related behaviour. However, these studies have predominantly examined national events. The aim of this study is to provide a statistical evaluation of the relationship between mass gatherings in some relatively small urban sub-populations and the general suicide rates of a major city.
The data were gathered in the Ukrainian city of Dnipropetrovsk, with a population of 1 million people, in 2005–2010. Suicide attempts, suicides, and the total amount of suicide-related behaviours were registered daily for each sex. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analysis, including negative binomial regression, were applied to assess the risk of suicide-related behaviour in the city’s general population for 7 days before and after 427 mass gatherings, such as concerts, football games, and non-regular mass events organized by the Orthodox Church and new religious movements.
The bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses found significant changes in some suicide-related behaviour rates in the city’s population after certain kinds of mass gatherings. In particular, we observed an increased relative risk (RR) of male suicide-related behaviour after a home defeat of the local football team (RR = 1.32, p = 0.047; regression coefficient beta = 0.371, p = 0.002), and an increased risk of male suicides (RR = 1.29, p = 0.006; beta =0.255, p = 0.002), male suicide-related behaviour (RR = 1.25, p = 0.019; beta =0.251, p < 0.001), and total suicide-related behaviour (RR = 1.23 p < 0.001; beta =0.187, p < 0.001) after events organized by the new religious movements.
Although football games and mass events organized by new religious movements involved a relatively small part of an urban population (1.6 and 0.3%, respectively), we observed a significant increase of the some suicide-related behaviour rates in the whole population. It is likely that the observed effect on suicide-related behaviour is related to one’s personal presence at the event rather than to its broadcast. Our findings can be explained largely in terms of Gabennesch’s theory of the ‘broken-promises effect’ with regard to intra- and interpersonal conflict and, in terms of crowd behaviour effects.
Suicide; Suicide attempt; Mass gatherings; Football; Concerts; Religion; New religious movements; Broken-promises effect; Conflict; Crowd behaviour
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In this research work is presented the approach to modeling of the crowd behavior (ensemble) in extreme situations based on methods of an agent simulation. The main feature of the approach is the taking into account the dynamics of each agent in researched ensemble.
It is important to note, the effect of the full or partial losing of the orientation of an agent in extreme situations such as attacks, explosions, fires with a smoke screening, etc. was taken into account in the created model. As a result of it, the “crowd effect” is being appeared. It is expressed by the “gravitating” or “antigravitating” of close located agents with the some probability depended on psychotype of an agent.
In the work is researched the effects related with the “turbulence of the
crowd”. There is simulated the activity of intellectual agent-rescuers. In the work is supposed own simulator of the “crowd effect” developed with using of Adobe Flash CS technology and the object-oriented programming language Action Script 3.0.
An agent model of crowd (ensemble) behavior in emergencies was presented. This model is distinguished for the allowance for dynamics of each agent from the ensemble under consideration. The crowd effect manifests itself mostly as attraction or repulsion of closely set agents with a probability depending on the agent’s psychological type. Consideration was given to the effects associated with the crowd “turbulence.” Operation of the intelligent rescue agents was simulated. The impact of the configuration of spatial agent allocation on the dynamics of their evacuation in emergencies was analyzed. The influence of the intelligent rescue agents on the system was studied, and an adaptive procedure for training such agents was developed.