Исследование нормативных свойств двухступенчатых процедур выбора
We introduce the notion of a maximum likelihood optimal decision alternative for the choice problem with a finite set of decision alternatives, assuming a general parametric preference model of the decision maker. We also develop an optimization-based method for the identification of such alternatives for the cases in which the parametric preference model is based on uncertain intervals for criterion trade-offs. The suggested approach can be seen as generalising stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) to a wider modelling setting. It also provides a maximum likelihood interpretation of the SMAA acceptability index.
The Arctic region is one of the most sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. The dramatic melting of Arctic ice has several negative consequences for the whole ecosystem as well as for a way of life of native people but it also creates new opportunities for the region. First, it opens up potential for exploitation of large deposits of natural resources such oil and gas. Second, it shrinks Arctic shipping routes which offer significant economic savings for many countries. These benefits has already attracted many countries, both Arctic and non-Arctic, thus resulting in potential conflict of interests. Unclear borders and existing territorial claims made the problem even more complicated. In our paper we made an attempt to evaluate the level of interest of countries in the Arctic region with respect to main resources – oil, gas, fish and maritime routes. As a result, we identified conflict of zones and presented a model of conflict resolution based on the idea of superposition which allocates each zone to a particular country.