Прогнозирование банкротства средних и малых российских компаний
The chief aim of this paper is to analyse dynamics of linear and non-linear methods to predict bankruptcy for Russian private small and medium-sized retail and wholesale trade companies. We use financial and non-financial data prior and subsequent to the economic crisis of 2008—2009. We use the following methods: logistic regression and random forest.
This research will be of vital importance especially to banks and other credit organisations providing loans to small and medium businesses.
Our dataset comprises from 200,000 to 600,000 companies depending on specific year. We use data from the Ruslana database which covers the period from 2004 to 2012.
The definition of default is extended to financial difficulties by adding voluntary liquidated firms to those liquidated as a result of legal bankruptcy. We study active companies and two types of liquidated ones.
Heterogeneity of Russian companies is taken into account in several ways. In addition to financial ratios derived from financial statements we include non-financial variables such as regional distribution, age, size and legal form into statistical models.
Evaluation of the prediction performance is done with the help of out-of-sample forecasts. We obtain models with quite high predictive power, area under ROC curve reaches 0.75. Random forest outperformed logit-model. Adding non-financial information such as age and federal region leads to the improved forecasts while legal form and size do not have a great impact on the outcome. Among financial measures liquidity, profitability and leverage ratios turned out to be essential. Moreover, our models captured a structural change which was likely to be caused by the crisis of 2008—2009.
In article the questions connected with application of economic models and methods for forecasting of bankruptcy of legal entities are analysed.
According to the current legislation about bankruptcy the limited amount of criteria is applied to diagnostics of insolvency of legal entities: coefficients of the current liquidity, security with own working capital and restoration (loss) of solvency. The basis for recognition of structure of balance unsatisfactory, and the enterprises insolvent is existence of one of conditions: the coefficient of the current liquidity for the end of the reporting period has value below of the standard; the coefficient of security with own current assets for the end of the reporting period has value below of the standard.
At the same time, in Russia and abroad there is a large number of economic models of diagnostics of probability of approach of bankruptcy of legal entities.
The conclusion that prevention of the reasons of insolvency and restoration of financial stability of the enterprise should be connected including, with application of institute of diagnostics of bankruptcy is drawn. For increase of efficiency of a financial condition of the legal entity the author suggests to combine economic receptions with strategy of his development, widely to use criteria and indicators of an assessment of a financial condition of the concrete enterprise that will allow to attach special significance to the pre-judicial procedures directed on restoration of solvency.
Authors suggest to develop uniform system (technique) of diagnostics of bankruptcy of the legal entity for an assessment and bankruptcy forecasting, and also need of assignment for a legislative order of a duty of the legal entity to present as the annex to accounting reports to tax authorities a quarterly, semi-annual or annual technique of the analysis of the financial and economic activity, directed on identification of signs of bankruptcy. Today the legislation of the Russian Federation didn't provide a duty of application by the enterprises of the quarterly, semi-annual or annual techniques directed on identification of signs of insolvency. As the main tasks of the analysis of a financial and economic condition of the legal entity the correct estimates of an initial financial position and dynamics of its further development have to act.
This article provides the results of development of bankruptcy prediction static model and its testing on the sample of more than thousand companies of manufacturing industry. The main scenarios of bankruptcy are identified and it is shown that depending on the bankruptcy scenario possible insolvency can be predicted one or four years before.