Современный экономический рост: теория и моделирование. Материалы Двенадцатых Друкеровских чтений.
Approaches to modeling the strategic development of supply chains and the formation of cooperation strategies based on method of ontological engineering, complex system dynamics agent-based simulation
In this research work is presented the approach to modeling of the crowd behavior (ensemble) in extreme situations based on methods of an agent simulation. The main feature of the approach is the taking into account the dynamics of each agent in researched ensemble.
It is important to note, the effect of the full or partial losing of the orientation of an agent in extreme situations such as attacks, explosions, fires with a smoke screening, etc. was taken into account in the created model. As a result of it, the “crowd effect” is being appeared. It is expressed by the “gravitating” or “antigravitating” of close located agents with the some probability depended on psychotype of an agent.
In the work is researched the effects related with the “turbulence of the
crowd”. There is simulated the activity of intellectual agent-rescuers. In the work is supposed own simulator of the “crowd effect” developed with using of Adobe Flash CS technology and the object-oriented programming language Action Script 3.0.
The article considers the structural and dynamic aspects of the pension system development processes and information and analytical support of government decision making in the pension sphere using a set of simulation models. The set is developed using system dynamics methods and agent-based modeling.
It discusses the paradigm of simulation: system dynamics, agent-based modeling, and composite mix of dynamic models in the enterprise, dynamic models of social development and other problems of modeling and analysis of the strategic development of the socio-economic systems
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.