Bio#Futures. Foreseeing and Exploring the Bioeconomy
This volume presents a timely recognition, warning and mapping of the fast approaching wave, or “bio-tsunami”, of global socio-technical transformation, built by a much wider spectrum of converging powers, including biotechnology, new agriculture, novel foods, health, quality of life, environment, energy, sustainability, education, knowledge management, and design of smart applications. The book contains eight sections corresponding to different clusters of bioeconomic and socio-technical change, as identified by the editors’ “Scanning the Horizon” foresight research; it also offers an integrated view of the future bioeconomy landscape though the convergence of several technologies that affect everyday life. The clusters offer methodologies for forecasting the future bioeconomy, and how these predictions can affect target-setting and the orientation of policies and actions to manage cultural and societal change, and achieve sustainable development in less developed areas. The book will be of interest to researchers, producers, logistics experts, policy makers, regulators, business and financial institutions, and biotechnologists (e.g. geneticists, food experts, etc.).
This chapter presents the overview of global challenges and trends, as well as technological landscape and future prospects for science, technology and innovation (STI) in agriculture and food sector. Our study is based on a systemic mapping of trends and technologies with the combination of big data analysis (text mining) and expert-based methods. The focus of the study is the interaction of agrifood sector with biotechnology and digital technology domains in shaping the future of bioeconomy-driven sustainable and socially inclusive bioagrifood sector. The latter is understood not only in terms of food production but also as a societal ecosystem providing opportunities for human-centred and environment-oriented activities on the land involving certain groups of the population based on traditions and collective and individual values. New opportunities for long-desired wide implementation of the principles of sustainable development and bioeconomy provided by breakthroughs in biotechnologies, nanotechnologies and artificial intelligence give hopes of deep transformation in the sector not only in the most technologically and economically advanced countries but also in mid-tier ones.
Blended Foresight approach for global bio trends
What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are the three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution and 3) the Scientific-Information Revolution which will transform into the Cybernetic one.
The article introduces the Theory of Production Revolutions. This is a new explanatory paradigm which is of value when analyzing causes and trends of global shifts in historical process. The article describes the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrates a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. The authors argue that the third production revolution that started in the 1950s and which they call the Cybernetic one, in the coming decades, that is in the 2030s and 2040s, will get a new impetus and enter its final stage – the epoch of (self)controllable systems. There are given certain forecasts concerning the development in such spheres as medicine, biotechnologies and nanotechnologies in the coming decades (the 2010s – 2060s).
The paper examines problems of analysis of projects in the sphere of biotechnologies and pharmaceuticals by venture investors. It is underlined that in the case of biotechnologies and pharmaceuticals traditional approach based on discounted cash flows can not meet the requirements because of the unexpected risks and profits. So additional tools are required. For this purpose the paper proposes strategic net present value (rNPV) method and method of real options valuation (ROV).
Problems of mathematical modeling in biomedicine, direct and inverse problems of determining the parameters of biophysical processes with the help of computer simulations will be discussed. The second international conference MM-HPC-BBB-2018 will include the following research sections and meetings:– High-performance and distributed computing in biomedicine; – Applications of bioinformatics and systems biology; – Data mining methods in natural sciences; – Mathematical modeling of gene and metabolic networks; – Modeling of pharmacokinetic processes. Numerical methods of solving; inverse problems; – Mathematical models of immune process. Direct and inverse problems of immunology; – Mathematical aspects of epidemiology; – Identfiability analysis and experimental design for dynamical models; – Software packages application for solving the problems of bioinformatics and biomedicine; – Development of numerical algorithms for solving inverse problems in tomography.
The article analyzes the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the 20th and early 21st centuries and forecasts the main shifts in the next half a century. On the basis of the analysis of the latest achievements in innovative technological directions and also on the basis of the opportunities provided by the theory of production revolutions the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. The authors give some forecasts about its development in the nearest five decades and up to the end of the 21st century. It is shown that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. The authors argue that at first the transition to the beginning of the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will start in the field of medicine (in its some innovative directions). In future we will deal with the start of convergence of innovative technologies which will form the system of MBNRIC-technologies (i.e. the technological paradigm based on medicine, bio- and nanotechnologies, robotics, IT and cognitive technologies). The article gives a detailed analysis of the future breakthroughs in medicine, bio- and nanotechnologies as well as some other technologies in terms of the development of self-regulating systems with their growing ability to select optimum modes of functioning as well as of other characteristics of the Cybernetic Revolution (resources and energy saving, miniaturization, individualization, etc.).
This article is devoted to the analyses of the elements of state industrial policy for strategic development of biotechnology industry in Russia in the context of transition to the new (sixth) technological order. We discuss the goals, objectives and participants of emerging technology platforms, as well as the tools supporting the development of biotechnology, aimed at stimulating demand and increasing competitiveness of the industry.
The paper provides a number of proposed draft operational guidelines for technology measurement and includes a number of tentative technology definitions to be used for statistical purposes, principles for identification and classification of potentially growing technology areas, suggestions on the survey strategies and indicators. These are the key components of an internationally harmonized framework for collecting and interpreting technology data that would need to be further developed through a broader consultation process. A summary of definitions of technology already available in OECD manuals and the stocktaking results are provided in the Annex section.
For the development of technological innovations it is essential to ensure competent and modern commercialization within the framework of balanced business models. Multifactor cluster analysis of business models of contemporary high-technology companies and industries shows that the most effective commercialization emanate in the framework of four basic models. Company's profitability does not depend directly on the level of its technologies, but is determined by the quality of these business models. Besides trends in high-technology industries demonstrate raising segmentation and differentiation of markets and more frequent utilization of value network models.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.
портовый менеджмент, показатели деятельности, анализ эффективности, система учета, распределение издержек, методы анализа деятельности портовой системы
At present many industries reveal tendency for setting up of vertically integrated companies (VIC) the structure of which unites all technological processes. This tendency proved its efficiency in oil industry where coordination of all successive stages of technological process, namely, oil prospecting and production -oil transportation - oil processing - oil chemistry - oil products and oil chemicals marketing, is necessary. The article considers specific features of introduction of "personnel management" module at enterprises of oil and gas industry.
vertically integrated companies; personnel management