Системное моделирование социально-экономических процессов: труды 42-ой международной научной школы-семинара имени академика С.С.Шаталина
The article is devoted to the analysis of goals, objectives and methodological apparatus of economics and law. The paper notes that, despite the mismatch of tasks and the difference in the methodological apparatus, economics and jurisprudence are complementary scientific knowledge. The importance of economic analysis in the study of the effectiveness of law is indicated. The author summarizes the conclusions and judgments in the study area.
The article analyzes the current natural gas pricing system in Russia and suggests directions for its transformation, taking into account the situation in the economy and the energy sector. The methodology is based on the methods of system analysis using economic and mathematical optimization modeling of the energy sector and the economy. The authors show that the current gas pricing system in the country limits the development of competition, does not allow to increase the efficiency of economic sectors and to modernize the energy sector. Mechanisms of gas exchange trading, which were created in the country, do not reflect the state of the market. Under these conditions, it is necessary to implement a set of measures that will allow creating a transparent pricing system based on market principles and reflecting the real situation in the consuming sectors. The gas industry can become a tool to stimulate economic development. The increase in gas prices would allow to create conditions for modernization, leading to GDP growth due to the expansion of orders for the Russian industry from the energy and consuming sectors. At the same time, increased efficiency helps to contain the growth of consumer spending, while increased tax revenues from the gas industry would make it possible to avoid the growth of other taxes on consumers, which could be inevitable due to the expected decline in revenues from the oil industry. In parallel, objective conditions would be created for the development of inter-fuel competition, and the gas industry itself will become a more at-tractive segment for investment.
The article deals with a massive protest movement which swept major Iranian cities starting from the end of 2017. The fast growth of prices, the devaluation of the national currency, and environmental issues triggered a serious civil unrest which united different social groups and professional guilds in their dissatisfaction with the current socio-economic situation in the country. The most important thing which makes this protest different even from the events of 1388/2009 is the active participation of the so called bazari, or traditional middle class of merchants and small shop owners, who for decades presented a ground base for the Islamic regime. As long as the protest continues, it can have extremely negative consequences for the Islamic Republic, especially under the conditions of growing external pressure. The re-imposition of the former unilateral sanctions by the US and the implementation of new restrictions have already had a significant impact on daily life of common Iranians. Despite the difficult conditions caused by the sanctions, which the Iranian government calls a “psychological war” (Jang-i ravani) against the country, and the unstable situation in the Sunni regions of the west, north-west and south-east, the Islamic Regime (Nizam-i Islami) is still able to remain in control of the state. What realities of Modern Iran make its population “tired”? What was the reaction of the Iranian Government and Leader of the Revolution and how is the Iranian establishment going to overcome the crisis? Does the Iranian regime take necessary steps to decrease social inequality? What forces stand behind these protests in the country and abroad? These are the main questions to be answered in order to understand possible future developments and their results for the Islamic Republic and regional stability.
The paper argues that when developing an explanatory model of the early-stage entrepreneurial activity level (measured by total index of early entrepreneurial activity - TEA) one should consider the ‘path dependency’ of the ‘institutional matrix’ of different societies. Otherwise one could wonder why some theoretical models of TEA determining factors, as provided by a lot of studies, are not statistically significant for younger market systems and entrepreneurship in transitional economies. However, comparing Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data with the scope of official statistics provides a deeper insight into adults’ intrinsic incentives to become entrepreneurial. A statistical analysis of national TEA levels does not support the thesis that TEA levels, and structure, change under economic slowdown. Therefore, it seems logical to suggest that to interpret the TEA level it is important to examine some fundamental specific of different types of national markets rather than just the actual economic situation itself. When testing this hypothesis, the authors compared the characteristics of GEM countries with stable, high or low TEA levels. A Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis (FLDA) is used to examine whether different groups of countries can be distinguished by linear combinations of predictor variables and to determine which variables are responsible for this separation. The FLDA model explains the parabolic form of the relation between the level of economic development and TEA. A database of independent variables includes some different quantitative, ordinal and nominal variables determining the context of the national capital accumulation history. Using FLDA, we argue, one might foresee future tendencies of TEA - not only for GEM participating countries.
The paper describes the results of years action of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, determines the need to continue the development of the constitutional provisions, on the historical example shows the need for constitutional development in the constitutional dialogue.
The report “Russia and the World: 20120. Annual Forecast: Economy and Foreign Policy” continues the series of yearly publications of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) and Foundation for Prospective Studies and Initiatives. It consists of two parts: “Economy” and “Foreign Policy”. Part I focuses upon Russian foreign trade-economic relations and analysis and forecast of the world (Russia, Europe, the USA, Japan, India) economic trends in 2019-2020, including international financial markets and main Russian export markets. The report is based on the decades long IMEMO experience in forecast research. Part II presents the forecast of international relations for 2020, it analyzes main challenges for Russia and options to respond them.