Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков. Арабская весна в глобальном контексте
After the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011, explosive global growth was observed for the majority of indicators of sociopolitical destabilization in all parts of the World System. In order to identify the structure of this destabilization wave, we apply a series of statistical techniques such as trend analysis and t-tests to study the degrees of intensification of various instability indicators (as recorded by the Cross-National Time Series database). We reveal explosive global growth in anti-government demonstrations, riots, general strikes, terrorist attacks/guerrilla warfare and purges, as well as in the global integral index of sociopolitical destabilization. On the other hand, no statistically significant growth has been detected for assassinations and major government crises, whereas for such an important indicator of global sociopolitical destabilization, as the global number of coups and coup attempts, we find a statistically significant decrease.
Sergei P. Kurdyumov (1928–2004) and his distinguished contribution in the development of the modern interdisciplinary theory and methodology of study of complex self- organizing systems, i.e. synergetics, is under consideration in the article. The matter of a mathematical model of evolutionary dynamics of complex systems elaborated by him is demonstrated. The nonlinear equation of heat conductivity serves as a basis of the model. Under certain conditions, it describes dynamics of development of structures of different complexity in the blow-up regime. Methods of calculation of two-dimentional structures which are described by automodel solutions are considered; and their classification is given. The automodel problem is a boundary problem aiming to find eigen-values and eigen-functions for a nonlinear equation of elliptical type on a plane. Proceeding from the analysis of the model, a principle of coevolution was formulated by S.P. Kurdyumov. This is the principle of integration of simple structures into a complex one. Three notions of great significance follow from the principle, and namely: the notion of connection of space and time, the notion of complexity and its nature and the notion evolutionary cycles and switching over different regimes as a necessary mechanism of maintenance of «life» of complex structures. Approaches of possible application of this model for understanding of dynamics of complex social, demographic and geopolitical systems are viewed as well.
This book provides an in-depth analysis of public opinion patterns among Muslims, particularly in the Arab world. On the basis of data from the World Values Survey, the Arab Barometer Project and the Arab Opinion Index, it compares the dynamics of Muslim opinion structures with global publics and arrives at social scientific predictions of value changes in the region. Using country factor scores from a variety of surveys, it also develops composite indices of support for democracy and a liberal society on a global level and in the Muslim world, and analyzes a multivariate model of opinion structures in the Arab world, based on over 40 variables from 12 countries in the Arab League and covering 67% of the total population of the Arab countries. While being optimistic about the general, long-term trend towards democracy and the resilience of Arab and Muslim civil society to Islamism, the book also highlights anti-Semitic trends in the region and discusses them in the larger context of xenophobia in traditional societies. In light of the current global confrontation with radical Islamism, this book provides vital material for policy planners, academics and think tanks alike.
The work is devoted to fundamental aspects of the classical molecular dynamics method, which was developed half a century ago as a means of solving computational problems in statistical physics and has now become one of the most important numerical methods in the theory of condensed state. At the same time, the molecular dynamics method based on solving the equations of motion for a multiparticle system proved to be directly related to the basic concepts of classical statistical physics, in particular, to the problem of the occurrence of irreversibility. This paper analyzes the dynamic and stochastic properties of molecular dynamics systems connected with the local instability of trajectories and the errors of the numerical integration. The probabilistic nature of classical statistics is discussed. We propose a concept explaining the finite dynamic memory time and the emergence of irreversibility in real systems.
The article deals with the processes of building the information society and security in the CIS in accordance with modern conditions. The main objective is to review existing mechanisms for the formation of a common information space in the Eurasian region, regarded as one of the essential aspects of international integration. The theoretical significance of the work is to determine the main controls of the regional information infrastructure, improved by the development of communication features in a rapid process.The practical component consists in determining the future policies of the region under consideration in building the information society. The study authors used historical-descriptive approach and factual analysis of events having to do with drawing the contours of today's global information society in the regional refraction.
The main result is the fact that the development of information and communication technologies, and network resources leads to increased threats of destabilization of the socio-political situation in view of the emergence of multiple centers that generate the ideological and psychological background. Keeping focused information policy can not be conceived without the collective participation of States in the first place, members of the group leaders of integration - Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Currently, only produced a comprehensive approach to security in the information field in the Eurasian region, but the events in the world, largely thanks to modern technology, make the search for an exit strategy with a much higher speed. The article contributes to the science of international relations, engaging in interdisciplinary thinking that is associated with a transition period in the development of society. A study of current conditions in their relation to the current socio-political patterns of the authors leads to conclusions about the need for cooperation with the network centers of power in the modern information environment, the formation of alternative models of networking, especially in innovation and scientific and technical areas of information policy, and expanding the integration of the field in this region on the information content.
This special publication for the 2012 New Delhi Summit is a collection of articles by government officials from BRICS countries, representatives of international organizations, businessmen and leading researchers.
The list of Russian contributors includes Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia, Maxim Medvedkov, Director of the Trade Negotiations Department of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Vladimir Dmitriev, Vnesheconombank Chairman, Alexander Bedritsky, advisor to the Russian President, VadimLukov, Ambassador-at-large of the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry, and representatives of the academic community.
The publication also features articles by the President of Kazakhstan NursultanNazarbayev and internationally respected economist Jim O’Neil, who coined the term “BRIC”. In his article Jim O’Neil speculates about the future of the BRICS countries and the institution as a whole.
The publication addresses important issues of the global agenda, the priorities of BRICS and the Indian Presidency, the policies and competitive advantages of the participants, as well as BRICS institutionalization, enhancing efficiency and accountability of the forum.