Глобальные энергетические вызовы и национальная экономика: стрессовые сценарии для России
Global Energy Challenges and the National Economy: Stress Scenarios for Russia / A. Bereznoy, I. Kuzminov, I. Loginova; National Research University Higher School of Economics. – Moscow: HSE, 2016.
The issue of energy has been one of the reasons behind the creation of the G7 mechanism and with later added climate change problem, it remains high on the G8 agenda. The major powers of the West needed to coordinate their efforts in order to confront the new challenges: the need to ensure security of energy supply, introduce energy saving and energy efficient technologies and make sure that leading industrial countries can afford proper economic development with the adequate and unhampered energy supply. The global energy system has come through three major stages, with the last system structure still being in the making – with all the stakeholders, namely producer, consumer and transit states, big transnational energy corporations and national energy companies, still going through grand reshuffle and redistribution of “decision-making vs. accepting the rules of the games” roles. The G8 in general follows the suit along the lines of changes introduced within the global energy architecture fluctuations. As for the club’s activities, there is a way to provisionally single out five phases in the G7/G8 energy activities. During the times of the two energy crises – 1970s – early 1980s energy security issues took a prominent place on the G7 agenda. Further on during the period of much lower prices and sustainable excess of supply over demand this issue became second rate and was mentioned only within the environmental context. End of 1980s – early 1990s, after the demise of the Soviet Union and the socialist block falling apart the main focus of the G7 lead178 Part III. Critical cCase sStudies ers was shifted to the problems of nuclear security (not only as an environmental issue, especially after Chernobyl AES accident of 1986, but also in the light of growing risks of proliferation of nuclear materials and technologies. After 2000 energy security in its own right recaptured the attention of the G8 countries, with the so popular climate change issue being not only ecological, economic and political issue, but also intensified to a certain extent a PR and market-oriented reaction of the hydrocarbon consuming actors to the sky-rocketed oil prices. The fifth phase is still to be introduced and developed by the G8+ participants, since the current global financial and economic crisis has brought its own differentials into the process.
This paper analyzes Belarus energy system, relations between Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia in the framework of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space. The consequences of the recent political crisis in Ukraine will inevitably lead to the review of the relations between the European Union and Russia. In these new conditions, the members of the Common Economic Space of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia must develop a new concept of energy security. This new concept should allow to decrease substantially the influence of the export of hydrocarbons on the economic development of abovementioned countries, thus increasing the competitiveness of their national economies. As a first measure, the members of the Eurasian Union should create the single energy market
In the past decades Foresight has been significantly developed as a tool for long-term forecasting in the field of power generation and energy efficiency. Such research aims at investigation of the most promising innovation strategies in this area, identifying various (including alternative) ways to achieve technological and market goals with the participation of best qualified experts. Such Foresight method as Roadmapping is widespread in the world practice. It helps to shape complex and interrelated views on prospects of innovation development in specific areas of energy efficiency, it links R&D programmes with creation of technologies and products, as well as their subsequent commercialization. The paper provides an overview of the world Foresight experience aimed at creating vision of the future and building innovation strategies related to energy efficiency. Special attention is paid to the Russian research practice, in particular to different types of Foresight projects implemented by the specialists of State University - Higher School of Economics. The authors describe the results of main projects dedicated to shape the future of energy-efficient technologies and to develop of innovation strategies on their application.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.