Growth and Stagnation in the World Economy
Measuring Economic Growth and Productivity presents new insights into the causes, mechanisms, and results of growth in national and regional accounts. It demonstrates the versatility and usefulness of the KLEMS databases, which generate internationally comparable industry-level data on outputs, inputs, and productivity. By rethinking economic development beyond existing measurements, its contributors align the measurement of growth and productivity to contemporary global challenges, addressing the need for measurements superior to the Gross Domestic Product. All contributors to this foundational volume are recognized experts in their fields, inspired by the path-breaking research of Dale W. Jorgenson.
This paper studies structural transformation and its implications for productivity growth in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) from the 1980s onwards. Based on a critical assessment of the reliability and consistency of various primary data sources, we bring together a new database that provides trends in value added and employment at a detailed 35-sector level. Structural decomposition analysis suggests that for China, India and Russia reallocation of labour across sectors is contributing to aggregate productivity growth, whereas in Brazil it is not. This confirms and strengthens the findings of McMillan and Rodrik [NBER working paper 17143, 2011]. However, this result is overturned when a distinction is made between formal and informal activities within sectors. Increasing formalization of the Brazilian economy since 2000 appears to be growth-enhancing, while in India the increase in informality after the reforms is growth-reducing.
We expect economic growth to remain strong in Poland and Latvia in 2016. Despite this robust growth, the new Polish government is likely to soften monetary and fiscal policies to further stimulate the economy, in our view. In 2015, the Latvian economy demonstrated strong resilience to external shocks.
The Russian economy has been booming over the past decade and flexed its muscles in the international political and economic arena. But how strong is the Russian economy really? Is it mainly based on the revenues of gas and oil exports? Or is it the result of major changes in the structure and productivity in the economy since the breakdown of the communist system? To what extent will these changes be mainly transitory, reflecting the shift from a planned economy towards a free market environment, or permanent? In this article we compare the pattern of economic growth in Russia in the past decades with that of other economic regions in the world economy and argue that some features of sustainable growth have appeared in the last decade. The current crisis will be a major test of the resilience of the Russian economy.
The fundamental idea underpinning spatial econometric models of economic growth is as follows: regional growth is determined not only by social, economic, geographic traits of a region but also by spillovers from other regions, most importantly adjacent ones. If one region starts booming, it can left neighbors unaffected (neutral mechanism), spur their growth (cooperation mechanism) or slow their growth by pulling resources over (competition mechanism). What mechanism and to which extent occurs in practice matters for designing balanced economic policy and evaluating efficiency of regional policy investment. Classic spatial econometric models make strong although simplifying assumption that the same mechanism matters for all regions in the same manner, and there is no variation in spillovers intensity across regions. This assumption seems plausible for relatively small and homogenous regions of European countries, but it looks excessively strong for large and diverse Russian regions. In this paper we attempt to relax this assumption and propose a new model, fitting better in Russian conditions and bringing only slight sophistication from the estimation point of view. We introduce sensitivity parameter governing regional exposure to externalities. We assume this parameter to be a linear function of region-level observables, like area, population density or urbanization rate. These hypotheses have been confirmed at least partially. We found that dense and urbanized regions were more sensitive to spillovers. In other words, a region surrounded by the fast-growing areas, will grow the more intense, the more its population density and the higher the level of urbanization.
The goal of this study is to examine the performance of the Russian economy during the 2000’s. The authors study sources of economic growth during the period applying growth accounting framework and discussing standard assumptions and statistical problems. The relatively intensive growth of the Russian economy was accompanied by a very slow decline of inflation rates. The Chapter discusses the specific features of the recent consumer price rise and considers several manifestations of inflation persistence during the last decade.
The purpose of the work is to model disproportions in development of regional economy of Russia and to determine perspectives and recommendations for overcoming them and achieving the balance of the economy. The applied methods are based on Popkova's methodology of calculation of “underdevelopment whirlpools,” which allows conducting dynamic modeling of disproportions in development of regional economy. The research is performed in three consecutive stages. At the first stage, the dynamic model of development of the Russia's regional economy is compiled with the help of the methodology of “underdevelopment whirlpools” in federal districts of the Russian Federation based on GDP per capita. At the second stage, the key factors of emergence of disproportions in development of the Russia's regional economy are determined and models of multiple regression of development of the Russia's regional economy are compiled. At the third stage, target parameters of the determined factors are set for reducing the “underdevelopment whirlpools” in the Russia's regional economy by automatized solution of the optimization task with application of the simplex method and recommendations for overcoming the disproportions in development of the Russia's regional economy are compiled. As a result, it is concluded that regional economy of Russia is not well-balanced, as it has deep structural disproportions. These disproportions are caused by insufficient attention to peculiarities of regional economic systems during development and implementation of regional strategies of state management of economy. For more precise accounting of the influence of the key factors of appearance of disproportions and highly-effective management of them for overcoming the “underdevelopment whirlpools,” the algorithm of overcoming the disproportions in development of the Russia's regional economy is developed by the authors, which envisages various managerial measures depending on peculiarities of each Russian region.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.