Перестройка мировых энергетических рынков: возможности и вызовы для России
The paper applies Looking Forward Approach to analyze the world oil market with the framework of a differential game model of quantity competition oligopoly. Namely Looking Forward Approach is used to take into account dynami- cally updating information. Under the information we understand the forecast of the oil demand dynamics. We focus on the period from December 2015 to November 2016 and suppose that during this time interval countries did not cooperate offi- cially on the amounts of oil to be produced. Therefore, their behavior can be mod- eled using the non-cooperative game model. As a solution concept for this conflict- controlled process we use feedback Nash equilibrium. In order to define the pa- rameters of model open source data is used, results of numerical simulations and comparison with the historical data are presented.
One of the primary energy sources, natural gas is widely used for power generation, industrial production, transportation, commercial buildings, and households. The industry is a capital intensive one for all stages from exploration to delivery. Two types of supplies: pipeline and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), recently have faced a direct intra-industrial competition. Physical nature of methane and associated transportation costs lead to domination of so-called "natural monopolies" or "national champions" and strict government regulation, which postponed the development of free trade and competition. After decades of technical innovations and cost curve improvement in LNG sector, shale boom in the USA, increasing global consumption, and demand for supply diversification reformulated the role of gas in the global energy balance. While the pipeline sector remains to be in the hands of large corporations and a subject of strategic interstate and international agreements, or LNG provides more diversity and flexibility of trade. However, even after a long history of LNG shipment since the late 1950s, LNG market is still regional with high spreads between countries and terms of delivery.
The paper presents the evolution of business models in the natural gas industry, focusing on the primary drivers as government regulation, production technologies, and regional markets trends on the way to liberalization and cointegration. Thus, our primary objective is to show relative influence power of these drivers. This analysis also defines the competitiveness of corporate business model under conditions of asymmetric information, regional gas markets, deregulation trends, fast-growing production technologies and downstream infrastructure (specifically in LNG sector). We also enclose the analysis of the most globally competitive gas projects. We analyze changes in value chain change and trading contracts. Our methodological approach poses model-based principles, including option and contract models, jointly with game theory elements.
On May 18-19, 2012, at the presidential retreat in Camp David in Maryland, U.S. president Barack Obama hosted the 38th annual G8 summit. The leaders discussed global economic growth, development, and peace and security. After less than 24 hours of face-to-face time among the leaders, they issued communiqué of only five pages. However, Camp David was a significant success. The leaders came together to effectively address the most pressing issues of the day while setting the direction for the summits that were to follow, including the summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Chicago, the G20 in Los Cabos, Mexico, and the Rio+20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. That success was propelled by several causes. The first is the set of strong global shocks were particularly relevant to a number of items on the agenda. This included the newest installment of the euro-crisis, spikes in oil and food prices, and the escalating violence in Syria. The second is the failure of the other major international institutions to address these challenges. The third is the club’s dedication to the promotion of democracy and its significance on issues such as the democratic transition in the Middle East and North Africa. The fourth is the high relative capabilities of G8 members, fuelled by the strength of the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen and the British pound. The fifth is the domestic political control, capital, continuity, competence and commitment of the leaders in attendance. Camp David saw several G8 leaders returning for their sixth or seventh summit and leaders with a secure majority mandate and control of their legislative houses at home. Finally, the constricted participation at the remote and secluded Camp David Summit, a unique and original advantage of the G8 summit style, allowed for more spontaneous conversation and interpersonal bonds. Together, these interconnected causes brought the G8 back, as a broader, bigger, bolder centre of effective global governance.
The compendium of articles presented at the fifth international conference of young scientists, organized by the Center of Energy Studies, IMEMO RAS and Faculty of International Energy Business of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (NRU), focuses on the complex and multidimensional processes of world energy restructuring. Of special interest are the articles from the young scholars of Center of Energy Studies, IMEMO RAS and Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas Base Chair at IMEMO, covering the world oil market developments, transport electrification, LNG market development and China’s and India’s gas market restructuring.
Russia is estimated to hold the world's largest technically recoverable shale-oil resources. The conventional oil resource base is still very large, but there are doubts about how much is economically recoverable. Increasing attention is given to unconventional oil. The purpose of the article is to assess whether fundamental conditions for sustainable, profitable production of unconventional oil are in place. Compared to the successful development of unconventional oil in the USA, Russia has several disadvantages. The Russian oil sector is dominated by big companies without the flexibility in methods and decision-making required in very heterogeneous unconventional projects. Infrastructure is less accessible in Russia than in most American projects. On a more fundamental level the relatively poor condition of geological data collections is a serious cost increasing factor, and the system for development and dispersion of new technologies has critical shortcomings. Russia lacks appreciation of risk taking and a corresponding regulatory framework, as well as relevant financial mechanisms. Nevertheless, government documents almost exclusively focus on technology as such as well as on taxation and tax benefits as preconditions for successful development. Without addressing the fundamental institutional problems, the potential for exploiting the resources base will be limited.
The compendium of research materials presented at the fifth international conference, organized by Center of Energy Studies, IMEMO RAS and Faculty of International Energy Business of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (NRU), focuses on the ongoing transformation of oil and gas markets and adaptation of energy companies, sectors and countries to new challenges caused by the wide range of economic and political factors. Experts of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas Base Department at IMEMO focus on the analysis of the US unconventional hydrocarbon sector dynamics, risks related to the peak of global demand for oil, new forms of competition of oil and gas exporters for market niches, tendencies of small scale LNG development, corrections in the long-term strategies of energy companies.
The article examines the changes in the U.S. upstream gas industry from the perspective of asset specificity and characteristics of human capital. The authors show that nowadays the development of shale gas production, as well as the expansion of production and sales of liquefied natural gas are associated with changes in the asset characteristics (both tangible and intangible). The latter is increasingly acquiring the features of universality. Among the characteristics of such changes is the reduction in contract duration, and changing directions of natural gas supply (including outside the United States). Furthermore, the ratio of costs changes dramatically: while for the traditional fields capital costs, associated with well construction, dominate over operational costs, associated with well exploitation and maintenance, shale fields are characterised by an invert correlation. In addition, the essential role is now played not by field/well characteristics, but by the level of competencies and the technological development. Hence, the share of employees in the service sector keeps increasing. The authors substantiate that the “shale” assets are generally less specific than the “traditional” ones. The transformation of specificity, along with the increase in the number of transactions, lead to the proliferation of the number of service companies and local operators at all the stages. These companies tend to minimise costs and maximise efficiency, consequently (alongside with several other reasons, mentioned in the article) leading to lower gas prices in the U.S.A. and creating an opportunity for gas export.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.