Анализ и моделирование мировой и страновой динамики: методология и базовые модели
The global evolution of the world community as an integrated self-organizing and self-developing system is studied in the article; and some main features and laws of its evolution are exposed. The attention is focused on the consideration of cyclic character of evolution, of periods of the global history of mankind, of the growth of complexity and the birth of technological, social and cultural innovation as a result of passing through crises. This is an interdisciplinary research which relies upon the results of mathematical modeling. The models elaborated by Ivan M. Diakonov, Sergey P. Kapitsa, M. Kremer, Sergey P. Kurdyumov as well as the model of macroevolution of World-System developed by L.E. Grinin, A.V. Korotaev and S.Yu. Malkov are analyzed. The evolution of the world commonwealth is considered as a stage of the universal (global) evolutionary process starting from Big Bang and up to emergence of life, appearance of a human being. The development of World-System in a blow-up regime leads to the strongest stratification of society, to the strengthening of instability and unevenness of development of countries and territories, to disintegration of complex geopolitical structures, and to the threat of collapse of civilization. As a positive alternative, the authors discuss opportunities of management of the future and of the choice of a favorable path of development of mankind. These opportunities are based on the understanding of the principles of co-evolution of nature and mankind as well as of complex social and geopolitical structures.
The article deals with the processes of building the information society and security in the CIS in accordance with modern conditions. The main objective is to review existing mechanisms for the formation of a common information space in the Eurasian region, regarded as one of the essential aspects of international integration. The theoretical significance of the work is to determine the main controls of the regional information infrastructure, improved by the development of communication features in a rapid process.The practical component consists in determining the future policies of the region under consideration in building the information society. The study authors used historical-descriptive approach and factual analysis of events having to do with drawing the contours of today's global information society in the regional refraction.
The main result is the fact that the development of information and communication technologies, and network resources leads to increased threats of destabilization of the socio-political situation in view of the emergence of multiple centers that generate the ideological and psychological background. Keeping focused information policy can not be conceived without the collective participation of States in the first place, members of the group leaders of integration - Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Currently, only produced a comprehensive approach to security in the information field in the Eurasian region, but the events in the world, largely thanks to modern technology, make the search for an exit strategy with a much higher speed. The article contributes to the science of international relations, engaging in interdisciplinary thinking that is associated with a transition period in the development of society. A study of current conditions in their relation to the current socio-political patterns of the authors leads to conclusions about the need for cooperation with the network centers of power in the modern information environment, the formation of alternative models of networking, especially in innovation and scientific and technical areas of information policy, and expanding the integration of the field in this region on the information content.