Прогнозирование и диагностика в повышении эффективности производства и эксплуатации РЭА
Analyzing the reasons of financial crises in the book «The Black Swan» N.N. Taleb concludes that modern economic models badly describe reality for they are not able to forecast such crises in advance. We tried to present processes on stock exchange as two random processes one of which happens rather often (regular regime) and the other one - rather rare. Our answer is that if regular processes are correctly recognized with the probability a bit higher than 1/2, this allows to get positive average gain. We believe that this very phenomenon lies in the basis of unwillingness of people to expect crises permanently and to try recognizing them.
ФИНАНСОВЫЕ КРИЗИСЫ, биржа, пуассоновский процесс, financial crises, Stock exchange, Poisson processes
In this article we describe a system allowing companies to organize an efficient inventory management with 40 suppliers of different products. The system consists of four modules, each of which can be improved: demand planning, inventory management, procurement planning and KPI reporting. Described system was implemented in a real company, specializing on perishable products totaling over 600 SKUs. The system helped the company to increase its turnover by 7% while keeping the same level of services.
Generalized error-locating codes are discussed. An algorithm for calculation of the upper bound of the probability of erroneous decoding for known code parameters and the input error probability is given. Based on this algorithm, an algorithm for selection of the code parameters for a specified design and input and output error probabilities is constructed. The lower bound of the probability of erroneous decoding is given. Examples of the dependence of the probability of erroneous decoding on the input error probability are given and the behavior of the obtained curves is explained.
The dynamics of a two-component Davydov-Scott (DS) soliton with a small mismatch of the initial location or velocity of the high-frequency (HF) component was investigated within the framework of the Zakharov-type system of two coupled equations for the HF and low-frequency (LF) fields. In this system, the HF field is described by the linear Schrödinger equation with the potential generated by the LF component varying in time and space. The LF component in this system is described by the Korteweg-de Vries equation with a term of quadratic influence of the HF field on the LF field. The frequency of the DS soliton`s component oscillation was found analytically using the balance equation. The perturbed DS soliton was shown to be stable. The analytical results were confirmed by numerical simulations.
Radiation conditions are described for various space regions, radiation-induced effects in spacecraft materials and equipment components are considered and information on theoretical, computational, and experimental methods for studying radiation effects are presented. The peculiarities of radiation effects on nanostructures and some problems related to modeling and radiation testing of such structures are considered.
This volume presents new results in the study and optimization of information transmission models in telecommunication networks using different approaches, mainly based on theiries of queueing systems and queueing networks .
The paper provides a number of proposed draft operational guidelines for technology measurement and includes a number of tentative technology definitions to be used for statistical purposes, principles for identification and classification of potentially growing technology areas, suggestions on the survey strategies and indicators. These are the key components of an internationally harmonized framework for collecting and interpreting technology data that would need to be further developed through a broader consultation process. A summary of definitions of technology already available in OECD manuals and the stocktaking results are provided in the Annex section.