Социально-экономические детерминанты выбора месяца рождения ребенка в Российской Федерации: статистический анализ

Вопросы статистики. 2024. Т. 31. № 1. С. 72–82.

Rodionova L., Kopnova E., Кобцева А. А.

The results of a statistical analysis of the factors determining the decisions of families regarding the choice of the month of child birth are presented in the article. A review of the literature shows that a wide range of factors – cultural, biological, climatic and socio-economic – can influence these decisions. In the article, the authors focus on socio-economic determinants.

 In the Russian Federation, as well as throughout the world, there is a steady seasonality of births: between 2000 and 2022 most children were born in July and August. The article formulates a number of hypotheses regarding possible seasonality determinants, which were tested on the basis of Rosstat data from a sample survey of households «Comprehensive observation of living conditions of the population in 2020» and Rosstat data on registered births by month in Russian regions for 2019–2022. Using unordered multiple choice logit model estimates, cluster analysis and correlation analysis the authors obtained results demonstrating that the choice of summer months for the child birth is determined primarily by household, with the increase of which the birth of a child is more often planned for July. In regions characterized by high rates of quality-of-life indicators, predominantly urban population and a high level of contraceptive use, family preferences in choosing the summer months for child birth are also increasing. The influence of mother's age and education was not identified in the work.

The results of the study can be used by the authorities to develop an effective strategy in the field of demographic policy.

Keywords: статистические методы, демографическая статистика, demographic statistics, сезонность рождений, амплитуда сезонных колебаний, месяц рождения ребенка, логит-модель неупорядоченного множественного выбора, seasonality of births, month of child birth, unordered multiple choice logit model estimates