Сравнительный анализ ядерных доктрин Индии и Пакистана

Восточная аналитика. 2020. № 1. С. 98–109.

Сотников В. И.

This article offers a discussion and analysis of nuclear doctrine of India and Pakistan and their significance for war, peace and stability in South Asia. The analysis nuclear doctrines of India and Pakistan is also given to show the challenges these states have faced in articulating and implementing a proper nuclear doctrine, and the implications of this for nuclear stability in the region We argue that both the Indian and Pakistani doctrines and postures are problematic from a regional security perspective because they are either ambiguous about how to address crucial deterrence related issues, and/or demonstrate a severe mismatch between the security problems and goals they are designed to deal with, and also the role of nuclear weapons in military and political strategy. Consequently, as both Indian and Pakistani nuclear doctrines and postures evolve, the risks of a spiraling nuclear arms race in the subcontinent are likely to increase without a reassessment of doctrinal issues in New Delhi and Islamabad. A case is made for more clarity and less ambition from both sides in reconsidering of their respective nuclear doctrines. However we believe the barriers in each of these countries can be overcome and there is likelihood of such changes being made in their respective nuclear

Keywords: Индия, Пакистан, India, security, стратегическая стабильность, Pakistan, Южная Азия, strategic international security, ядерное сдерживание, nuclear deterrence, South Asia, безопасность, nuclear doctrine, ядерная доктрина