Developing foresight that impacts senior management decisions

Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2024. Vol. 198. Article 123036.

Jonathan Calof, Colton B.

Extensive research exists on the potential impacts of foresight; however, a comprehensive understanding of the factors that lead to foresight impact, particularly in influencing senior management decisions, is relatively sparse. This study addresses this by reporting on a Delphi and expert panel involving eight senior Canadian government foresight program leaders. These leaders were asked to help identify and then rate a list of factors that they felt resulted in their foresight projects impacting senior management decisions. Results suggested that factors such as foresight methodology, while leading to good foresight, do not necessarily result in senior decision-maker impact. Instead, criteria defined in this paper as the “consultants' toolkit,” such as understanding the senior decision maker's pain points and foresight managers having a strong understanding of the organization's inner workings, play a crucial role. The expert panel discussion suggested that the importance of senior management decision-making factors depends on three mediating variables: The temporal orientation of the Department, the foresight orientation of the department's senior management, and the nature of the relationship between the foresight manager and the senior decision maker.

Keywords: management, foresight, management decisions, impacts of foresight, senior management decisions

Publication based on the results of: The study of social and economic crises as triggers for accelerated science and technology development (2023)