Политические риски для китайских ПИИ в странах БРИКС в условиях глобальной волатильности и неопределенности
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the modern VUCA-world with increasing geopolitical fragmentation and geo-economic confrontation gives rise to a corresponding diversification in the assessment of political risks in host countries, depending on the subjective characteristics of the perception of the situation by the top management of the investing multinational enterprises (MNEs). Under these conditions, the using of various global databases, containing weighted average indicators, including global political risk indexes, does not seem to be sufficiently correct, especially in cases of investment interaction between firms from confronting countries or regions. These include, first of all, Chinese FDI, which requires, making investment decisions, and an assessment of political risks in host economies that are adequate to the Chinese perception of the situation. As a consequence, such a risk assessment requires the use not of objective or quasi-objective probabilities based on global weighted average expert estimates, but of subjective likelihood. This is exactly the approach developed in this paper where authors utilized a new method of assessment on how Chinese MNEs perceive “host country political risks”. This allowed us to develop the new database - the Country Political Risk Index (CPRI) in conjunction with the UNCTAD database on global FDI flows and a form-level CGIT database on Chinese overseas FDI. The developed methodology made it possible to obtain a compact CPRI design based on 15 of the most influential indicators, which successfully passed the robustness test. The indexes obtained in this way were successfully applied to the assessment of the political risk distribution of Chinese OFDI in BRICS countries at national, sectoral, and firm levels in historical dynamics for the period 2006-2017. This made it possible not only to illustrate the practical applicability of the CPRI database but also the fairly high efficiency of the developed method for assessing political risks in host countries as perceived by Chinese MNEs, as well as to point out new directions for future research, including about OFDI carried out by enterprises from other BRICS countries.