Количественный анализ политических факторов революционной дестабилизации

Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2023. Т. 110. № 3. С. 149–171.

Korotayev A., Zhdanov A.

The article presents a systematic review of the results of testing the political factors of revolutionary destabilization in the works attributed by the authors to the fifth generation of studies of revolutions. It is shown that, according to quantitative cross-national studies conducted to date, the same political factors can have different effects on the likelihood of armed uprisings, on the one hand, and unarmed revolutionary actions, on the other. The studies reviewed by the authors demonstrate that holding elections increases the risks of unarmed revolutionary destabilization. The diffusion effect in the modern world is more characteristic of the unarmed than of armed revolutions. Similarly, the prolonged stay of the first person in power serves as a trigger for unarmed rather than armed demonstrations. In turn, armed revolutionary clashes are especially frequent in countries with heterogeneous ethnic and religious composition, where a significant part of the population is excluded from politics on ethno-religious grounds. The same applies to countries that pursue a policy of targeted discrimination against minorities. At the same time, there are also factors whose influence concerns all types of revolutionary destabilization. The probability of both armed and unarmed revolutions is highest in countries with a political regime occupying an intermediate position between full autocracy and full democracy, that is, in partial autocracies and partial democracies. Both armed and unarmed revolutions are more likely where similar events have already occurred in the recent past (at the same time, armed revolutionary actions increase the likelihood of new armed uprisings, and unarmed ones increase the likelihood of new unarmed protests).

Keywords: quantitative analysis, количественный анализ, revolutions, революции, political factors of revolutionary destabilization, политические факторы революционной дестабилизации

Publication based on the results of: Mechanisms and factors of stability of socio-political systems of the "Afrasian" macro zone of instability (2023)