Система предотвращения мошенничества как составляющая кредитного конвейера
The aim of the article is to model dynamics of risks and assess the cyclical effect of Basel II in the Russian banking system.
The article describes the use of Excel programme for risk assessment models: method of sensitivity analysis, scenarios method, Monte-Carlo method.
long-term investment project, risk, method of sensitivity analysis, Scenario method, method of Monte Carlo simulation
Authorities of the state regulation, creditors and investors are interested in getting reliable information about the banking sector activities. The procedure of bank financial soundness and accountability evaluation is carried out by supervision authorities as well as by international and national rating agencies. The analysis of the methodologies of bank accountability evaluation and forecasting in Russia shows the following results. The Bank of Russia makes decisions on banks financial soundness based on financial coefficients of different groups; the calculations are grounded on the official bank statements. Apart from financial indicators, rating agencies evaluate qualitative parameters of the bank activities. The common problem of the bank financial accountability analysis in Russia is the lack of use of the forecasting methods predicting the financial statement of banks and the probability of default. As a result, the problem-free banks corresponding to the demands of the supervision authorities on standards were considered to be problematic during the crisis. The aim of this research is the dynamic analysis of the main indicators of the Russian banks activities at the different stages of the economic cycle in order to identify the indicators of the early bankruptcy prediction and the opportunity to forecast the changes in the bank financial statement.
We consider certain spaces of functions on the circle, which naturally appear in harmonic analysis, and superposition operators on these spaces. We study the following question: which functions have the property that each their superposition with a homeomorphism of the circle belongs to a given space? We also study the multidimensional case.
We consider the spaces of functions on the m-dimensional torus, whose Fourier transform is p -summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of the exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase. The results generalize to the multidimensional case the one-dimensional results obtained by the author earlier in “Quantitative estimates in the Beurling—Helson theorem”, Sbornik: Mathematics, 201:12 (2010), 1811 – 1836.
We consider the spaces of function on the circle whose Fourier transform is p-summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase.