Article
Предпосылки возникновения финансового пузыря
In this article the author analyses the characteristics of the economic assets the most suitable for financial bubbles appearance and the preconditions thereof. The best objects for bubble inflation are the investment assets with long life, rare and hard-to-value objects. The development of the bubbles is frequently based on the «new world» paradigm in its different varieties: the technological breakthrough, the development of geographical markets, the financial innovation, etc. The bubbles are promoted by favorable economic environment, new means of communication, social changes leading to the mass entry of new players in the financial markets, soft monetary policy, week investor’s budget constraint, and institutional architecture of financial markets favoring herd behavior.
Proposed a model of financial bubbles and crises based upon the methodology of complex systems analysis. The irrationality of financial investors, as it was well known, had been empirically explained by «the greater fool theory». This process, in modern terms, was represented as the autocatalytic process leading to a system's singularity. It was shown how the procedures (slice and dice) of a CDO synthesis generated the excess growth of the securitized assets value. The latter being coupled with the high le-verage might produce the total collapse of a financial system. On a macrolevel the behaviour the of a system was modeled by a differential equation depending on three parameters. Such an outcome was explained on the system's microlevel as a process of financial percolation which was modeled, quite surprisingly, by the same equation of a Bernoulli type. Invariant constants of percolation were used to estimate different parameters of a model. The model application to the study of 2007-2010 credit crunch has given rise to the impressively coherent results in terms of probabilities and the return time periods of critical events that took place on the global financial markets.
Proposed a model of financial bubbles and crises based upon the methodology of complex systems analysis. It was shown how the procedures (slice and dice) of a CDO synthesis generated the excess growth of the securitized assets value. The latter being coupled with the high leverage might produce the total collapse of a financial system. On a macrolevel of a system its behaviour was modeled by a differential equation depending on three parameters. The irrationality of financial investors, as it was well known, had been empirically explained by «the greater fool theory». This process, in modern terms, was represented as the autocatalytic process leading to a system's singularity. Such an outcome was explained on the system's microlevel as a process of financial percolation which was modeled, quite surprisingly, by the same equation of a Bernoulli type. Invariant constants of percolation were used to estimate different parameters of a model. The model application to the study of 2007-2010 credit crunch has given rise to the impressively coherent results in terms of probabilities and the return time periods of critical events that took place on the global financial markets.
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In the paper some prominent features of a modern financial system are studied using the model of leverage dynamics. Asset securitization is considered as a major factor increasing aggregate debt and hence systems uncertainty and instability. A simple macrofinancial model includes a logistic equation of leverage dynamics that reveals origins of a financial bubble, thus corresponding closely to the Minsky financial instability hypothesis. Using ROA, ROE, and the interest rate as parameters, the model provides wide spectrum of leverage and default probability trajectories for the short and long run.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.