Экономика Китая и мировой кризис: механизмы взаимовлияния
China's domestic macroeconomic disequilibria contributed heavily to the global disbalances which resulted in the global financial crisis. Extremely high rates of saving and investment, along with the huge trade surplus of China, are a mirrow reflection of the US economic problems, such as the negative gross saving rate, overdependence on consumer demand for economic growth, trade deficit and hefty inflows of foreign capital. China's economic cycle broke even in late 2007 - early 2008, and it was aggravated with the recession in the developed countries. Hence unprecedented economic difficulties of China's economy, never seen for the preceeding periods of the reforms. China's governmental stabilization policy was up to the mark, and the economy has accelerated again. But the deepening of institutional reforms is essential for an economic growth to harmonise.
In the present article forecasts of China's upcoming development are given. It is shown why China, even with all its possible future success, will be unable to take the USA's place in the World System. The merits and shortcomings of the characteristics of the modern Chinese economic development model are revealed. The conclusion is made that the Chinese economy, with all its achievements, remains generally extensive and, based on the consumption of excessive numbers of various resources and funds and with respect to the attendant investment gain, will become more and more ineffective. The author believes that it will be impossible to reconstruct the Chinese development model and GDP growth rates will slow down soon.
In all three countries, inflation will remain at a low level both this year and in 2015. The disinflation environment, however, may exacerbate problems in the fiscal sphere, especially on the back of sluggish economic performance. This will be important for Croatia and Serbia, where budget expenditures (and hence deficits) will increase this year. Slovenia, on the other hand, is demonstrating stronger fiscal discipline.
Research is carried out article criminally-legal mechanism property protection, its communication with the inflationary and deflationary processes which have become aggravated in the conditions of financial crisis. By the analysis of communication of the criminal law with economic processes it is established that it aggravates property stratification of a modern society.
> Poland. The Polish economy is growing like a DM economy, while Bulgaria is still searching for a new growth model. Unlike many other countries, Poland was able to avoid recession in 2008-09, and it continues to demonstrate sustainable growth, albeit the threat of deflation exists. Polish economic growth is expected to accelerate this year, supported by a strong performance in construction. Consistent and strong macroeconomic policy kept the country's debt/GDP ratios at bay during the crisis, and has contributed to steady deleveraging in recent years. > Bulgaria. Bulgaria's economic growth remains slow, and after a sharp correction in 2009 the economy saw little restructuring in recent years. There has been deflation since mid-2013, but economic growth is set to accelerate this year to around 1.5%, which could offset the negative impact of deflation on the budget. The country's industrial output improved in 2013-14, but domestic demand has weakened in recent months. > Latvia. Latvia's economic growth still remains strong but may decelerate this year as a side effect of instability in the region and mounting complications in relations between Russia and the EU. Heavily indebted Latvia tightened its macroeconomic policy in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis and remains committed to maintaining macro stability, having joined the Eurozone. Deflation cannot be ruled out as a result.
The article presents a review of events in the financial market in 2007-2008. The author studies the interconnection between macroeconomic policy conducted by the USA monetary authorities since beginning of 1980-s till now, and the risks which have concentrated in the financial system and resulted in the crisis. The author specifies the mechanisms of the crisis deepening and broadening, and gives her own evaluation to them.