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Экономическая ценность прогнозов финансовых аналитиков на российском фондовом рынке

Финансовый бизнес. 2011. № 5. С. 69-74.
Болотин Г. М.

Analysis of the economic value of financial analysts' forecasts is based on the target prices issued by 9 leading analysts for 6 most liquid stocks on the Russian market in 2006-2010. The key idea is to replicate representative investor's behavior by using analysts' forecasts to construct portfolios and subsequently track the performance of these portfolios. The key finding of the research is that analysts' forecasts are in general valuable. It is also shown that western analysts' forecasts are only valuable under favorable market conditions, while local players issue better forecasts under the circumstances of global financial crisis.