Страх безработицы и гибкость заработной платы в России
Using the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey data, the paper examines Russian workers' fear of unemployment under different economic and labour market conditions during the last 15 years. We employ two alternative measures for this fear. The first one looks at the workers' fear of losing their current jobs, while the second deals with the fear of not finding relevant re-employment in case of displacement. In order to get the best possible measurement of unemployment for those local and social environments where our respondents live and work, we design unemployment rates for narrowly defined regional and demographic (peer) groups. Estimating ordered probit models for both fear measures, and controlling for various worker and job characteristics, we do not find significant causal effects of unemployment on these fears in most of our specifications. These results are robust to exclusion of potentially endogenous variables; they hold for different periods, subsamples, and levels of job security. Moreover, our simulations show that even a large increase in the unemployment rate has little impact on conditional probabilities of expressing a strong or weak fear of unemployment. These results suggest that the high level and persistence of fear of unemployment in Russia may be caused by non-economic factors.
This paper examines the connection between people's notions of economical situation and their economic behavior. This issue is considered on the example of forming up the notions of unemployment and their influence on workers adaptation in the labor market. Using the data of RMEE for 1994-2000 years the authors show that at the beginning of this period the fear of unemployment was forming up exogenously in relation to the real situation in the labor market. Along with actual unemployment it was a meaningful factor of lowering pressure on real wages. With the reforms development social learning of popula118" № 4 (66) июль-август 2003 Мониторинг общественного мнения tion decreased the importance of fear as an autonomous of unemployment adaptation mechanism in the labor market. The main conclusions of the paper are confirmed by econometric calculations using both MNK-estimations for cross-sectional data for particular years and estimations of panel regressions with individual effects.