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News
August 11, 2026
‘The Peak of Stupidity and ‘The Valley of Despair: HSE Economists Propose an Explanation for the Dunning–Kruger Effect
The Dunning–Kruger effect, which describes a sharp surge in self-confidence among beginners followed by an equally rapid decline as they gain experience, can be explained by the nature of the learning process and the acquisition of new knowledge. This conclusion was reached by Andrey Vorchik of the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences together with independent researcher Murat Mamyshev. They developed a mathematical model of learning and demonstrated how subjective confidence is formed and changes as knowledge accumulates, as well as how teachers can reduce the ‘valley of despair’ experienced by learners.
July 24, 2026
‘I Like Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
Andrey Vorchik studies happiness, delivers popular science lectures, and believes that science should address social issues as well. In an interview for the Young Scientists of HSE University project, he spoke about how emotions influence decision-making, the Bermuda Triangle formed by the bathroom, refrigerator, and bed, and the ideal formula for education.
July 24, 2026
'Physics Is What the World Is Literally Built On'
Physicist Nina Dzhanayeva, recipient of a Vladimir Potanin Foundation scholarship, focuses her research on nanophotonics. In this interview for the HSE Young Scientists project, she discusses nanowells, scientific intuition, and how physics can help in making frangipane cream puffs.

 

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Bayesian approximations to the theory of visual attention (TVA) in a foraging task

The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology. 2022.
Le S. T., Kristjánsson Á., MacInnes W.

Foraging as a natural visual search for multiple targets has increasingly been studied in humans in recent years. Here, we aimed to model the differences in foraging strategies between feature and conjunction foraging tasks found by Kristjánsson et al. (2014). Bundesen (1990) proposed the Theory of Visual Attention (TVA) as a computational model of attentional function that divides the selection process into filtering and pigeonholing. The theory describes a mechanism by which the strength of sensory evidence serves to categorize elements. We combined these ideas to train augmented Naïve Bayesian classifiers using data from Kristjánsson et al. (2014) as input. Specifically, we attempted to answer whether it is possible to predict how frequently observers switch between different target types during consecutive selections (switches) during feature and conjunction foraging using Bayesian classifiers. We formulated eleven new parameters that represent key sensory and bias information that could be used for each selection during the foraging task and tested them with multiple Bayesian models. Separate Bayesian networks were trained on feature and conjunction foraging data, and parameters that had no impact on the model's predictability were pruned away. We report high accuracy for switch prediction in both tasks from the classifiers, although the model for conjunction foraging was more accurate. We also report our Bayesian parameters in terms of their theoretical associations to TVA parameters, π_j (denoting the pertinence value) and β_i (denoting the decision-making bias).

Research target: Psychology
Language: English
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Text on another site
Keywords: lateral inhibition visual searchmodels of saliencefixations
Publication based on the results of:
A computational model to simulate visual stability from eye movements and spatial attention (2017)
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