Индексы базовой инфляции в России
The purpose of the article is to identify the main growth determinants of consumer prices in the Russian economy. The authors defined the degree of impact of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy, tariff regulation and the ruble exchange rate on inflation. The econometric model of inflation formation depending on the dynamics of the key factors is used as a research tool. The authors also used official monthly data of the Bank of Russia and Rosstat for the period from January 2005 to August 2015. A special focus is made on the modelling of volatility development in the Russian currency market, the main factors of which are oil price volatility, capital outflow and the Bank of Russia’s currency policy.
Enterprises today operate in a rapidly changing macroeconomic environment, and this factor should be taken into account when forecasting the financial standing of the company. In developing the company’s financial stability assessment model taking into account macroeconomic factors there is a problem of inclusion into the model of factors with frequency of measurement different from that of the internal financial performance. This paper proposes an approach to the development of financial stability model assessment taking into account macroeconomic factors and their aggregation. Based on the data of 291 enterprises of Volga Federal District metallurgical industry for the period 2012-2014, a financial stability assessment model has been built with the method of tree solution. The accuracy of the model is approximately 86%. Recommendations for optimization of the operating activities of the enterprise to achieve financial stability are given.