• A
  • A
  • A
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
Обычная версия сайта
  • RU
  • EN
  • HSE University
  • Publications
  • Articles
  • A Statistical Explanation of the Dunning–Kruger Effect
  • RU
  • EN
Расширенный поиск
Высшая школа экономики
Национальный исследовательский университет
Priority areas
  • business informatics
  • economics
  • engineering science
  • humanitarian
  • IT and mathematics
  • law
  • management
  • mathematics
  • sociology
  • state and public administration
by year
  • 2027
  • 2026
  • 2025
  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
  • 2001
  • 2000
  • 1999
  • 1998
  • 1997
  • 1996
  • 1995
  • 1994
  • 1993
  • 1992
  • 1991
  • 1990
  • 1989
  • 1988
  • 1987
  • 1986
  • 1985
  • 1984
  • 1983
  • 1982
  • 1981
  • 1980
  • 1979
  • 1978
  • 1977
  • 1976
  • 1975
  • 1974
  • 1973
  • 1972
  • 1971
  • 1970
  • 1969
  • 1968
  • 1967
  • 1966
  • 1965
  • 1964
  • 1963
  • 1958
  • More
Subject
News
October 14, 2026
At HSE University–St Petersburg, Experts Discuss How AI Changes Tourist Routes and Cultural Heritage
Neural networks are no longer simple travel assistants; now they decide what to include on the route and what to skip. Artificial intelligence changes how people perceive a place and shapes the image of tourist centres. At the II International Scientific and Practical Conference ’Information Technologies in the Preservation and Promotion of Cultural Heritage,’ researchers discussed who controls algorithmic solutions and in what ways, and whether authentic traditions get lost in them.
October 12, 2026
Road Injuries Leading Cause of Death Among Men Aged 10 to 39
Worldwide, road injuries are the leading cause of death among males aged 10–39. An international team of researchers reached this conclusion as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, analysing data from 204 countries between 1990 and 2023. Their findings have been published in The Lancet Public Health, with HSE University Professor Vasily Vlassov listed among the collaborators.
October 8, 2026
HSE Experts Take Part in 23rd Annual Meeting of Valdai Discussion Club
The 23rd Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club was held from September 28 to October 1, 2026 under the theme ‘Responsibility for the Future: Limits of the Possible, or Limitless Possibilities?’ The forum brought together 120 experts from 40 countries, including representatives of China, the United States, India, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Germany, Egypt, Iran, and Japan.

 

Have you spotted a typo?
Highlight it, click Ctrl+Enter and send us a message. Thank you for your help!

Publications
  • Books
  • Articles
  • Chapters of books
  • Working papers
  • Report a publication
  • Research at HSE

?

A Statistical Explanation of the Dunning–Kruger Effect

Frontiers in Psychology. 2022. Vol. 13. Article 840180.
Magnus J. R., Peresetsky A.

An explanation of the Dunning–Kruger effect is provided which does not require any psychological explanation, because it is derived as a statistical artifact. This is achieved by specifying a simple statistical model which explicitly takes the (random) boundary constraints into account. The model fits the data almost perfectly

Research target: Psychology Economics and Management Mathematics
Language: English
DOI
Text on another site
Keywords: boundary conditionsнедооценкапереоценкаграничные условияTobit modelDunning-Kruger effectDunning-Kruger эффектconditional expectationunderestimationoverestimationTobit модельусловное математическое ожидание
Similar publications
A survey on selection of supply strategies in material requirements planning based on the assessments of safety stock levels
Lukinskiy V., Lukinsky V., Sokolov B. et al., Annual Reviews in Control 2026 No. 62 P. 1–15
Enterprises planning material requirements must account for multiple sources of uncertainty. Considering the impact of yield uncertainty is of prime importance to decision-makers. To mitigate the effects of random yield on the continuity of manufacturing operations, we propose establishing a reserve stock to prevent shortages due to defective items within safety stock levels. If no ...
Added: October 14, 2026
Лидеры АПК в ЭКГ- рейтинге ответственного бизнеса в России
Vukovic N., Krivokhizhin O., Антонова В. Д., АПК: Экономика, управление 2026 № 8 С. 89–95
One of the key roles is given to the agro-industrial complex in the global agenda of sustainable development. The leaders of the sustainable development of the agro-industrial complex identify the main trends and set standards for responsible business conduct in the industry. This article is devoted to the analysis of the leaders of responsible business ...
Added: October 14, 2026
On Calculation of Robustness and Stability of Formal Concepts Based on Delta Measure
Parkhomenko V., Kulikova S., Buzmakov A. V., Lobachevskii Journal of Mathematics 2026 Vol. 47 No. 6 P. 2979–2992
The stability of formal concepts and its generalization as robustness are considered in the paper. We use an approximation of stability in the form of Δ-measure for fast calculations. A computationally efficient method for calculating robustness based on subcontexts is presented. We also present a new method to analytically evaluate the number of preimages for ...
Added: October 14, 2026
Shrimps as a fundamental object of nonlinear dynamics. Overview, properties and quasi-periodic generalization
Kuznetsov A. P., Sedova Y. V., Sataev I. R. et al., Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 2027 Vol. 2 P. 574–592
Universal bifurcation structures on the parameter plane of nonlinear systems, known as shrimps, are discussed. An overview of numerous examples from various fields of science is given. Shrimps are typical for both maps of different dimensions and flows. The varieties of shrimp are discussed and relevant examples are given. The similarity property on the parameter ...
Added: October 14, 2026
Русскоязычная версия шкалы проэкологического поведения
Zolotareva A., Kazennaya E., Углова А. А., Вопросы психологии 2026 Т. 72 № 1 С. 108–118
Шкала проэкологического поведения (Pro-Environmental Behavior Scale, PEBS) оценивает как индивидуальные его проявления, так и участие в проэкологической деятельности совместно с другими людьми. Целью настоящего исследования является адаптация русскоязычной версии PEBS в условиях реальной экологической катастрофы. Волонтеры, ликвидирующие последствия разлива нефти в Керченском заливе (n = 205), а также респонденты, не занимающиеся волонтерской деятельностью (n = ...
Added: October 13, 2026
Трансвитальное Я: опыт персонологии
Zalyubovsky E., Petrovskiy V., Культурно-историческая психология 2023 Т. 19 № 3 С. 13 – 22
The paper substantiates the concept of the existence of a “transvital Self”, a particular form of an individual’s existence beyond the apparent forms of vital function and the processes of reproducing self as a psychophysical integrity. The author uses the term “transvitality” (as in A. Akopyan’s “transvital meanings”) to more generally address this concept as ...
Added: October 13, 2026
О статусе «Я» в культурно-деятельностном дискурсе
Petrovskiy V., Культурно-историческая психология 2023 Т. 19 № 1 С. 35 – 40
The concept of the I that is present in the scholarly and mundane consciousness is inwardly paradoxical, as it contains the risk of regression to “bad infinity”. Thus, “I see an object” obviously creates in me the image of the object; by implication, “someone” inside me sees the image of the perceived object and, consequently, ...
Added: October 13, 2026
Varieties of regional innovation systems around the world and catch-up by latecomers
Kim J., Lee K., Industrial and Corporate Change 2026 Vol. 35 No. 5 P. 1122–1152
This study represents one of the first attempts to develop a global typology of regional innovation systems (RIS) across both advanced and catching-up economies, identifying distinct pathways for regional technological catch-up. Utilizing United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patent citation data from 33 regions worldwide over the period 2000–2017, we construct several RIS indicators, ...
Added: October 13, 2026
Knowledge management in future communities enhances smart city initiatives: path and mediation
Xu S., Yu H., Ren T. et al., Journal of Knowledge Management 2025 Vol. 29 No. 10 P. 3410–3436
Purpose This study aims to investigate the role of knowledge management in enhancing urban innovation within the context of smart cities, with a particular emphasis on the function of future communities as foundational units of knowledge-driven development. It aims to distinguish the respective contributions of knowledge acquisition and knowledge sharing as input mechanisms, while examining the ...
Added: October 13, 2026
Poincaré series of valuations on functions over a subfield of complex numbers
Gusein-Zade S., Campillo A., Delgado F., Mathematische Zeitschrift 2026 Vol. 314 No. 1 P. 1–22
For a subfield $\K$ of the field $\C$ of complex numbers, we consider curve and divisorial valuations on the algebra $\K[[x,y]]$ of formal power series in two variables with the coefficients in $\K$. We compute the semigroup Poincar\'e series and the classical Poincar\'e series of a (discrete, rank one) valuation on it. ...
Added: October 13, 2026
Креатив-партнёрство человека и ИИ: четвёртый формат образования?
Vikhrova E., Petrovskiy V., Высшее образование в России 2025 Т. 34 № 12 С. 10 – 32
This paper examines the psychological well-being of university students across various learning formats (in-person, online, and hybrid) and reflects on the role artificial intelligence (AI) tools play in supporting this well-being. The paper analyzes the impact of the learning formats on the dynamics of anxiety and depression levels in students, on their coping strategies for ...
Added: October 12, 2026
Wave scattering by a sloping beach of an arbitrary angle. Revisited: regular solution
Mishuris G., Meylan M. H., Pelinovsky E., Journal of Fluid Mechanics 2026 Vol. 1045 Article A4
In this paper, we revisit the classic problem of a wave field on a sloping beach of an arbitrary angle and propose a general approach that allows the computation of regular solutions of the problem regardless of the angle. We use the Mellin-transform technique, reducing the problem to singular integral equations with fixed-point singularities of ...
Added: October 12, 2026
Teacher expectations and mathematics growth in primary school: a multilevel moderation analysis
Yusupova E., Ogundele K. S., Durodola F. A., Social Psychology of Education 2026 No. 29 Article 127
This study examines the association between teacher expectations and mathematics growth among first-grade students in Russia. The sample included 1,155 students and 48 teachers from public schools in two Siberian regions. Students’ mathematics performance was assessed using START, with vertical test alignment used to measure individual growth. Multilevel regression models estimated on 20 multiply imputed ...
Added: October 12, 2026
Дифференциальная геометрия и топология. Курс лекций
Gusein-Zade S., М.: МЦНМО, 2026.
Книга содержит курс лекций по дифференциальной геометрии и топологии, читавшихся автором на механико-математическом факультете МГУ в разные годы. В дополнениях приводятся некоторые сюжеты (связности в расслоениях, теорема Фробениуса, производные Ли и др.), которые были включены в курс в отдельные годы либо содержались в аналогичных курсах лекций в Независимом московском университете. Для студентов математических и физических специальностей. ...
Added: October 12, 2026
Потребительские практики китайского среднего класса в контексте конфуцианских ценностей
Veselova L. S., Азия и Африка сегодня 2026 № 9 С. 38–48
The article examines the consumer practices of China’s middle class in the context of the transformation of Confucian values under the influence of market reforms, urbanization, the expansion of the domestic market, and the state ideology of contemporary China. The focus is on how traditional norms of family responsibility retain their normative significance while being ...
Added: October 12, 2026
Влияние санкционных шоков на техническую эффективность сельскохозяйственных предприятий: опыт молочного животноводства региона
Nikulina Y., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия EC "Economics". 2026. № 1.
This paper estimates the impact of the international sanctions of 2014 and 2022, as well as the food embargo, on the technical efficiency of agricultural enterprises. The assessment was carried out using panel data from agricultural enterprises specializing in dairy production in the Leningrad Region for the period 2010–2023, employing stochastic frontier analysis. It is ...
Added: October 11, 2026
Economic Globalization and Environmental Outcomes in Heterogeneous Panels: Composition, Technique, and Distributional Evidence from Shanghai Cooperation Organization Economies
Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences 2026
This study reassesses whether economic globalization is compatible with carbon mitigation across nine Shanghai Cooperation Organization economies over 1997 to 2024. A sequenced panel design is applied: pre-estimation diagnostics establish cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, and mixed integration orders; fixed effects with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors provides the preferred conditional mean estimate; Hansen threshold regression, ...
Added: October 11, 2026
发展危机问卷的中文版修订及信效度检验
WANG P., YANG Y., ZHANG Y. et al., Chinese Journal of Applied Psychology 2025 Vol. 31 No. 1 P. 45–53
Objective: To revise The Developmental Crisis Questionnaire (DCQ) and test its reliability and validity in adult age groups. Methods: The Chinese version of DCQ was determined by item analysis and exploratory factor analysis, and its structure was determined by confirmatory factor analysis. Finally, the reliability and validity of the scale were tested. Results: The 10 items of Chinese DCQ ...
Added: October 11, 2026
Торговые ограничения как инструмент международного давления (на примере импортных поставок в Россию)
Biryukova O. V., США и Канада: экономика, политика, культура 2026 Т. 10 С. 37–50
The article examines the theoretical and practical aspects of the application of trade restrictions as a tool of international pressure using the case of import supplies to Russia. Special attention is paid to legal conflicts within the World Trade Organization (WTO) related to the application of national security exceptions (Article XXI of the GATT), and ...
Added: October 10, 2026
Управление проектами: учебник
М.: НИЦ Инфра-М, 2026.
This textbook synthesizes modern concepts and approaches in the field of project management and is designed for use in project management courses. The material is based on the recommendations of the International Project Management Association (IPMA) and international standards ISO 21500 and ISO 21502. It meets the requirements of the latest generation of federal state educational ...
Added: October 10, 2026
О воспроизводимости анализа временных рядов на основе матричных профилей
Брычков М. Е., Незнанов А.А., Программирование 2026 № 4 С. 50–66
The matrix profile (MP) quickly became one of the most important time series preprocessing methods when it was introduced in 2016, facilitating the solution of a wide range of time series analysis problems, in particular anomaly and pattern detection problems. The high significance has led to the emergence of various tools for MP calculating, but ...
Added: October 9, 2026
Компактная аппроксимация двумерной краевой задачи для эллиптических уравнений второго порядка с разрывным коэффициентом
Gordin V. A., Шадрин Д. А., Математическое моделирование 2023 Т. 35 № 4 С. 88–119
Для эллиптического уравнения 2-го порядка с переменными разрывными коэффициентом и правой частью построена схема 4-го порядка точности. На линии скачка предполагаются выполненными условия стыковки (Кирхгофа). Применение экстраполяции Ричардсона, как показали численные эксперименты, увеличивает порядок точности примерно до 6-го. Показано, что релаксационные методы, в том числе многосеточный, применимы для решения таких систем линейных алгебраических уравнений (СЛАУ), ...
Added: April 11, 2025
Распределение времени между разными видами деятельности: обзор математических моделей
Ter-Akopov S., Voronina N., Михайлова Н. С. et al., Вопросы экономики 2024 № 11 С. 149–161
The history of time use research dates back more than 100 years. Russian scientists were among the first to conduct large-scale surveys in this field. Nowadays, this sphere has become interesting among scientists again. Rosstat has rebegun to conduct surveys on the daily time use, large-scale independent surveys have appeared, and media have increased their ...
Added: November 14, 2024
Wigner function dynamics with boundaries expressed as convolution
Seidov S., Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical 2023 Vol. 56 No. 32
Added: September 17, 2023
  • About
  • About
  • Key Figures & Facts
  • Sustainability at HSE University
  • Faculties & Departments
  • International Partnerships
  • Faculty & Staff
  • HSE Buildings
  • HSE University for Persons with Disabilities
  • Public Enquiries
  • Studies
  • Admissions
  • Programme Catalogue
  • Undergraduate
  • Graduate
  • Exchange Programmes
  • Summer University
  • Summer Schools
  • Semester in Moscow
  • Business Internship
  • Research
  • International Laboratories
  • Research Centres
  • Research Projects
  • Monitoring Studies
  • Conferences & Seminars
  • Academic Jobs
  • Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development
  • Media & Resources
  • Publications by staff
  • HSE Journals
  • Publishing House
  • iq.hse.ru: commentary by HSE experts
  • Library
  • Economic & Social Data Archive
  • Video
  • HSE Repository of Socio-Economic Information
  • HSE1993–2026
  • Contacts
  • Copyright
  • Privacy Policy
  • Site Map
Edit