Модели оценки способностей управляющих активами к микро- и макропрогнозированию
Mutual fund is one of the most popular investment route by investor, who allocate part of their funds to capital market. This paper surveys the field of measuring mutual fund’s managers’s skills. We focus on market-timing and selecting skills.
Our work is focused on Russian mutual funds managers’ skills versus luck estimating. Using bootstrap procedure we build Jensen’s alpha density for each fund. We find that only 5% of Russian equity mutual funds do have skills (in contrast to luck) to outperform the benchmark.
Each mutual fund is characterized by its investment strategies, investment structure and the level of liquidity of shares. As a result, it’s too difficult to compare yield of mutual funds of different management companies as well as various types of funds in order to select the most suitable for the investor fund. The article presents a comparative analysis of existing methods of ranking by leading rating agencies. Proposed and tested a method of ranking allows to reduce insufficiencies existing methods of ranking and simplifies the choice of efficient mutual funds for private investors.
The article deals with the investment skill of the Russian mutual funds’ managers. Studies of the American market performed in the second half of XX century produced mixed results, however those completed after 2000 uniformly confirm that investment skill exists only for periods of less than five years, if it exists in principle. The outperformance of the market happens more frequently in emerging markets. The authors find that most managers do not possess investment skill. 90% of the funds do not outperform the market consistently. Three of the four applied methodologies (Jensen’s Alfa, Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio) revealed that in 2004–2009 there existed more successful funds during the booming market of 2004–2007, while during the downturn (2008–2009) the number of successful funds diminished significantly. The information ratio confirmed the opposite picture, i.e. more funds outperformed the benchmarking portfolio during the downturn. There are only about 5% of funds in the sample (3–4 out of 74) whose managers are able to outplay the market in the long run. The study revealed that the management company of a successful fund either is affiliated with a large state companie, a large banks, or has persons affiliated with stock exchanges among its shareholders. The affiliation with the stock exchanges is the key success factor in Russia. Meanwhile, the study showed that there is no correlation of a fund’s success with affiliation with Russian oligarchs. Participation of foreign professional management companies in a shareholder capital of Russian management companies does not guarantee success as well.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.