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Исследование взаимосвязи кредитных циклов с изменениями кредитных рейтингов
Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. 2020. Т. 48. № 4. С. 138–160.
Karminsky A. M., Dyachkova N.
The purpose of this study is to identify relationships between
changes in ratings and the impact of credit cycles on them. The following methodology
was used: we built up an applied statistical probit-model of multiple-choice to
determine ratings changes. Our model includes a credit gap indicator for assessing the
impact of the credit cycle. Our empirical research also includes a review of the time
changes in the ratings during a ten-year period for developed and developing countries.
The results of our study show that credit ratings are not only affected by cyclical
changes within the credit cycle, but also are delayed in its relation to the cycle. From a
practical point of view, these results indicate the practical need to take into account various
macroeconomic factors because of the impact of credit cycles for forecasting and
risk management in financial markets.
Kalinin A. M., Проблемы прогнозирования 2026 № 1 С. 45–55
Rosstat's publication of basic input–output tables for 2021, given the five-year periodicity of such materials, represents a significant event for Russian economic science. The article provides an overview of some of the features and properties of the published tables and the results of their use for the analysis of technological changes and import dependence. It ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Tkachuk A., Романова В. В., Экономические науки 2026 № 2 С. 561–565
Актуальность статьи обусловлена трансформацией мирохозяйственных связей под влиянием
Китая. Степень разработанности отражена в полярных оценках экспансии КНР. Объект — экономическая экспансия Китая, предмет — модели взаимодействия со странами Глобального Юга.
Методология базируется на геоэкономическом подходе и концепции асимметричной взаимозависимости. Практическая значимость заключается в выявлении рисков долговой и технологической
зависимости и рекомендациях для стран-партнеров по выстраиванию сбалансированного сотрудничества. ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Kalinin A. M., Вопросы экономики 2025 № 8 С. 26–43
The study of the consequences of the application of individual sanctions instruments at the level of industries or segments of the economy allows us to assess the components and factors of overall sustainability, the effectiveness of the state policy. The paper provides an econometric assessment of the impact of US SDN list sanctions on Russian ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Kalinin A. M., Проблемы прогнозирования 2024 № 1 С. 35–53
The dynamics of the Russian economy in 2022 did not develop along the trajectories expected in most forecasts. Investments in fixed assets, contrary to expectations, decreased slightly; some industries have seen growth. The article offers an analysis of the 2022 results from the point of view of justification of views on the factors determining investment ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Kalinin A. M., Проблемы прогнозирования 2024 № 2 С. 21–33
The article discusses issues related to the assessment of import dependence and the results of the import substitution policy in the period 2016–2020. An overview of options for assessing import dependence indicators is provided, and the possibility of using resource and use tables published by Rosstat is substantiated. The main analysis tool is calculated tables ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Kalinin A. M., Вопросы экономики 2023 № 7 С. 100–114
The paper assesses some of the consequences of Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Whereas much discussion about its costs and benefits happened during the WTO negotiations and in the first years after the accession, there was little said on the real consequences afterwards. The aim of the research is to assess the ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Kalinin A. M., Общество и экономика 2023 № 4 С. 53–63
The withdrawal of foreign companies from the Russian market due to a change in the political situation has been a new trend for the Russian economy. The study shows that the actual scale of closure of foreign legal entities is insignificant, and even smaller than in previous years: the maximum number of legal entities was ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Kalinin A. M., Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления 2023 № 3 С. 7–25
Customer-centricity (client-centricity) is a new concept for Russian public governance. However, since 2022, the implementation of the relevant principles has been brought to the level of a national strategic initiative. The article proposes an analysis of the issues to be considered when implementing customer-centricity in the practice of government agencies and institutions. The article examines ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Styrin E. M., Ataeva A., Жатикова Д. В. et al., Регион: Экономика и Социология 2026 № 2 С. 31–55
There remains a pronounced interregional differentiation in the level of digital development across the Russian Federation, which necessitates a comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing the digital maturity of public administration bodies in the country’s regions. This article offers a quantitative assessment of the impact of external socioeconomic, institutional, and technological factors on the level ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Switzerland: Springer Publishing Company, 2026.
In this volume of “Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems” we are pleased to present the proceedings of the 25th International Multidisciplinary Conference on Reliability and Statistics in Transportation and Communication” (RelStat-2025), which took place in hybrid form in Riga, Latvia on October 16–18, 2025. This event belongs to a con ference series started in ...
Added: May 25, 2026
Шелованова Т. И., Синяков А. А., Russian Journal of Economics 2025 No. 11 P. 47–75
The booming retail trade and the above-target consumer prices inflation in 2023–2024 in Russia, amid tightening monetary policy stance, raise an issue of the strength of the monetary policy interest rate channel. The focus of our paper is the interest rate elasticity (given inflation expectations) of a household’s loan request probability. We argue that a ...
Added: May 25, 2026
Kaisarova V. P., Коклев К. С., СПб.: Издательство СПбГЭУ, 2025.
The article examines the trends in the development of territorial accessibility of public transport for the population of the largest city based on the geoinformation analysis of the spatial features of its infrastructure. The article provides a transport dynamic for the period 2015-2024 based on cluster analysis of data on individual types of transport and ...
Added: May 25, 2026
Paklina S., Parshakov P., Teplykh G., The Journal of the New Economic Association 2026 Vol. 70 No. 1 P. 279–301
This paper investigates the relationship between online recruitment and unemployment in Russia within the Beveridge curve (the unemployment–vacancy curve) framework. Using panel data for 81 Russian regions over the period 2006–2022, we examine how the expansion of online job boards affects regional unemployment dynamics. The empirical
analysis is based on fi xed- effects and instrumental- variable ...
Added: May 22, 2026
Rincon C. J., Alekseeva O., Vukovic D. et al., Risk Management 2026 No. 28 Article 38
This study examines the long-term effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) unconventional monetary policy (UMP) interventions on the yields of sovereign bonds in the Eurozone. Using a sample of 14 European countries from January 2009 to December 2023, our findings indicate that increases of 1 billion euros in the ECB’s balance sheet are associated ...
Added: May 22, 2026
Монгуш В. Р., Novikova A., Креативные индустрии 2026 Т. 2 № 1 С. 23–41
This article analyzes the historical and cultural background, as well as the current situation and development prospects of the creative industries ecosystem in the Republic of Tuva. A comparative analysis of this remote, subsidized region and its neighbors, the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) and Krasnoyarsk Krai, revealed its strengths, vulnerabilities, and strategies of young creative professionals ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Zizin A., Plotnikov S., Деева В. В. et al., Инновации и инвестиции 2025 № 6 С. 36–39
The article is devoted to the study of the innovative infrastructure of Russian universities. The importance of developing innovative infrastructure, the practice of their formation (using the example of the country's leading universities) is studied. A classification of infrastructure objects is given and the effectiveness of their use in the practice of Russian universities is ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Plotnikov S., Деева В. В., Тенденции развития науки и образования 2023 № 102-2 С. 113–120
In the scientific article are considered the main technologies of corporate innovative entrepreneurship. Each technology is examined separately, which allows for understanding the purposefulness of using each tool in practice at your company. ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Plotnikov S., Деева В. В., Деева А. В., Тенденции развития науки и образования 2023 № 102-2 С. 64–67
Short-term cyclicity in modern economic systems is caused by a number of factors, including insufficient information. Information about the state of the market, supply and demand is received with a delay due to the processes of its collection, processing and dissemination. The time lag in obtaining information affects the business activity of enterprises, since they ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Kopnova E., Османова А. О., В кн.: Цифровая экономика как драйвер экономического и социального развития: материалы IV международной научной конференции.: М.: МГИМО (У) МИД РФ, 2023. С. 130–151.
The work is devoted to the study of the ruble bank deposits market in Russia as a tool for attracting domestic monetary resources to stimulate economic growth. The analysis of the share of the studied banks in the total volume of ruble deposits made it possible to assess the concentration of the market, to identify ...
Added: January 23, 2026
Ozerov K., Кутенко С. В., Деньги и кредит 2024 Т. 83 № 4 С. 98–118
Under limited data, the classical cohort method for the creation of migration matrices does not fully reflect the dynamics of the credit quality of the objects within the sample. This problem is exacerbated for objects of lower credit quality less represented in the sample. This paper investigates a continuous time approach to the creation of ...
Added: December 20, 2025
Pastukhov E., , in: Eurasian Business and Economics Perspectives.: Springer, 2024.
This study seeks to identify and analyze trends in the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) globally, with a particular emphasis on emerging markets such as Russia. We examined the impact of CBDCs on the liquidity of Russian commercial banks, driven by a noticeable gap in existing research on this topic. Focusing on Russia ...
Added: June 30, 2025
Дерюгина Е. Б., Ponomarenko A. A., Деньги и кредит 2019 № 2 С. 28–42
Мы тестируем способность индикаторов раннего предупреждения, фигурирующих в литературе, прогнозировать пики кредитных циклов на выборке стран с формирующимися рынками и проверяем наши выводы с помощью перекрестной проверки. Наши результаты подтверждают, что стандартный показатель кредитного разрыва применим для такого прогнозирования. Более того, мы обнаруживаем, что в экономиках с формирующимися рынками получить более надежный прогноз, используя расширенные ...
Added: March 28, 2023
Karminsky A. M., Khromova E., Kudrov R., , in: Eurasian Business and Economics Perspectives. Eurasian Studies in Business and EconomicsVol. 19.: Springer Publishing Company, 2021. Ch. 9 P. 139–161.
The work is devoted to credit risk modeling of international banks by constructing ordered logistic models of credit ratings assigned by the agencies: Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch ratings. It was demonstrated that mapping the credit ratings into a base scale helps to decrease the possible subjectivity of CRAs and increases models’ forecasting power. ...
Added: November 1, 2021
Khromova E., , in: Recent Advances of the Russian Operations Research Society.: Cambridge: Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2020. Ch. 11 P. 177–196.
Added: October 31, 2021