Обзор методов оценки вклада потребления алкоголя в смертность в России
Introduction. The problem of calculating the contribution of alcohol consumption to mortality in Russia has been solved by domestic and foreign researchers since the mid-nineties. To date, a number of research papers have been published devoted to assessing the contribution of alcohol consumption to Russian mortality, including from all associated causes of death in aggregate. However, these estimates probably is need to be clarified.
Purpose. Determination of the methods used to assess the contribution of alcohol consumption to mortality in Russia. Discussion of its’ features, the possibilities of applying new approaches to solving the problem.
Materials and methods. Systematization of research papers in Russian and English, devoted to the assessment of the contribution of alcohol to mortality in Russia by methods used.
The article was prepared within the framework of the HSE University Basic Research Program.
Discussion. Complex assessments of the contribution of alcohol to mortality in Russia published to date represent the sum of all deaths associated with alcohol consumption, calculated by the population attributable fraction. These works provide estimates of the contribution of alcohol consumption to Russian mortality at the level of 13-22%, and at the age of 15-49 years - 35% for men and 20% for women.
The use of foreign indicators of relative risk in such calculations, as well as the lack of reliable data on the prevalence of hazardous alcohol consumption in Russia, may influence on the accuracy of these estimates. In addition, the published results of forensic medical examinations show that the proportion of Russians who died, especially of working age, in whose biological fluids ethanol was found, for some causes of death reaches 70-80%. Thus, we can assume that there is a potential underestimation of the contribution of alcohol consumption to mortality in Russia in current estimates.
Conclusions. To refine the assessment of the contribution of alcohol to mortality in Russia, the data of Russian forensic medical examinations can be used. The proportion of deaths with ethanol in the blood from various causes can be an indicator of the contribution of alcohol to mortality from various causes.