СИСТЕМНЫЙ ПОДХОД К ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЮ НАУЧНО-ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ ЗЕРНОВОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА
This article is devoted to the study of the process of forecasting the scientific and technological development of grain production from the point of view of system analysis. It is proposed to consider scientific and technological progress in the industry as a system consisting of the following interacting elements: labour, technology and land. The features of scientific and technological development of grain production are revealed: influence of climatic conditions, the linearity of the development of science and technology, mixed in the presence of the prevailing technological structure, instability and instability, the growth rate of scientific and technological progress, the availability of quality improvements, and the rapid development and, consequently, patterns of development in the form of periodicity. The conceptual basis for forecasting the scientific and technological development of grain production, including the prerequisites, purpose, objectives, object, features, principles and methods of forecasting, has been developed. It is proved that the process of forecasting the scientific and technological development of the industry is based on an algorithm-a consistent application of forecasting tools, consisting of the following stages: identification of patterns of development of grain production; determination of its periodicity; modeling of periods with a constant level of technical development; justification of challenges, trends, research fronts and windows of opportunity and priority directions of scientific and technological development of grain production; calculation of forecast values of grain production indicators. A set of indicators for assessing the level of scientific and technological development of the industry is determined, by grouping them according to the main factors of production and indicators of the effectiveness of these factors that determine scientific and technological progress in grain production.