Сравнение методов наукастинга макроэкономических индикаторов на примере российского ВВП
The paper compares the nowcasting quality of a range of models of Russian GDP using high-frequency data. The models compared are MIDAS in different specifications, including models with regularization and dimensionality reduction using principal components and Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR with Minnesota prior. Indices corresponding with GDP by production components are used as explanatory variables. Nowcasts of MFBVAR models are shown to have higher accuracy then obtained by any type of MIDAS models on different test time periods. We also analyze dynamics of nowcasting errors of models and calculate monthly estimate of GDP growth rate that can be obtained with MFBVAR models
The authors estimate the short-term and long-term relationship GDP- unemployment (employment). These are the first reliable and robust confirmations of Okun's law validity for Russia. It has been shown that the reaction of unemployment to output decline is much stronger than the response to output growth of the same size. Cross-country comparisons give evidence that Okun's coefficient for Russia is slightly inferior to the same indicator for most developed countries, but is similar to coefficients found for other emerging markets.
This article is about the market conditions of the bank corporate loans’ modifications by the mean of historical analysis of Russian economies evolution.
The article valuates structural changes in the total factor productivity for the GDP of a number of world economies based on two samples in 1990–2010. These estimates are used to study structural changes in the total factor productivity in Russia.
We consider certain spaces of functions on the circle, which naturally appear in harmonic analysis, and superposition operators on these spaces. We study the following question: which functions have the property that each their superposition with a homeomorphism of the circle belongs to a given space? We also study the multidimensional case.
We consider the spaces of functions on the m-dimensional torus, whose Fourier transform is p -summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of the exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase. The results generalize to the multidimensional case the one-dimensional results obtained by the author earlier in “Quantitative estimates in the Beurling—Helson theorem”, Sbornik: Mathematics, 201:12 (2010), 1811 – 1836.
We consider the spaces of function on the circle whose Fourier transform is p-summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase.