Элементы рандомизированного прогнозирования и его применение для предсказания суточной электрической нагрузки энергетической системы
A randomized forecasting method based on the generation of ensembles of entropy-optimal forecasting trajectories is developed. The latter are generated by randomized dynamic regression models containing random parameters, measurement noises, and a random input. The probability density functions of random parameters and measurement noises are estimated using real data within the randomized machine learning procedure. The ensembles of forecasting trajectories are generated by the sampling of the entropy-optimal probability distributions. This procedure is used for the randomized prediction of the daily electrical load of a regional power system. A stochastic oscillatory dynamic regression model is designed. One-, two-, and three-day forecasts of the electrical load are constructed, and their errors are analyzed.
Properties of Erdos measure and the invariant Erdos measure for the golden ratio and all values of the Bernoulli parameter are studies. It is proved that a shift on the two-sided Fibonacci compact set with invariant Erdos measure is isomorphic to the integral automorphism for a Bernoulli shift with countable alphabet. An effective algorithm for calculating the entropy of an invariant Erdos measure is proposed. It is shown that, for certain values of the Bernulli parameter, the algorithm gives the Hausdorff dimension of an Erdos measure to 15 decimal places.
Venture capital (VC) provides financial and managerial support for new innovative ideas at the initial stages of commercialization. It has helped to find the market for many radical innovations of 20th century, including personal computer, Internet and genetic engineering.
As a part of market economy venture business was not stable from the very beginning. The periods of rapid growth alternated with deep recessions. However each time VC revived anew as the Phoenix due to its very important function in modern knowledge-based economy.
This report presents an analysis of statistical data that prove the existence of several cycles in VC dynamics in the USA and the Great Britain. The main factors of these cycles formation are discussed. The author proposes two possible scenarios of development of VC market for the first 30 years of the new 21st century. A hypothesis is put forward about the relation between VC cycle's amplitude and a phase of Kondratieff's cycle.
Properties of Erdos measure and the invariant Erdos measure for the golden ratio and all values of the Bernoulli parameter are studies. It is proved that a shift on the two-sided Fibonacci compact set with invariant Erdos measure is isomorphic to the integral automorphism for a Bernoulli shift with countable alphabet.
In this article we describe a system allowing companies to organize an efficient inventory management with 40 suppliers of different products. The system consists of four modules, each of which can be improved: demand planning, inventory management, procurement planning and KPI reporting. Described system was implemented in a real company, specializing on perishable products totaling over 600 SKUs. The system helped the company to increase its turnover by 7% while keeping the same level of services.
We consider certain spaces of functions on the circle, which naturally appear in harmonic analysis, and superposition operators on these spaces. We study the following question: which functions have the property that each their superposition with a homeomorphism of the circle belongs to a given space? We also study the multidimensional case.
We consider the spaces of functions on the m-dimensional torus, whose Fourier transform is p -summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of the exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase. The results generalize to the multidimensional case the one-dimensional results obtained by the author earlier in “Quantitative estimates in the Beurling—Helson theorem”, Sbornik: Mathematics, 201:12 (2010), 1811 – 1836.
We consider the spaces of function on the circle whose Fourier transform is p-summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase.
This proceedings publication is a compilation of selected contributions from the “Third International Conference on the Dynamics of Information Systems” which took place at the University of Florida, Gainesville, February 16–18, 2011. The purpose of this conference was to bring together scientists and engineers from industry, government, and academia in order to exchange new discoveries and results in a broad range of topics relevant to the theory and practice of dynamics of information systems. Dynamics of Information Systems: Mathematical Foundation presents state-of-the art research and is intended for graduate students and researchers interested in some of the most recent discoveries in information theory and dynamical systems. Scientists in other disciplines may also benefit from the applications of new developments to their own area of study.