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Элементы рандомизированного прогнозирования и его применение для предсказания суточной электрической нагрузки энергетической системы
Автоматика и телемеханика. 2020. № 7. С. 148–172.
Popkov Y., Popkov A., Dubnov Y. A.
A randomized forecasting method based on the generation of ensembles of entropy-optimal forecasting trajectories is developed. The latter are generated by randomized dynamic regression models containing random parameters, measurement noises, and a random input. The probability density functions of random parameters and measurement noises are estimated using real data within the randomized machine learning procedure. The ensembles of forecasting trajectories are generated by the sampling of the entropy-optimal probability distributions. This procedure is used for the randomized prediction of the daily electrical load of a regional power system. A stochastic oscillatory dynamic regression model is designed. One-, two-, and three-day forecasts of the electrical load are constructed, and their errors are analyzed.
Language:
Russian
Association for Computational Linguistics, 2026.
Added: June 14, 2026
Konakov V., Kucher D., Mammen E., / Series arXiv "math". 2026. No. 2606.11142v1.
In this paper, we construct strong approximations for discrete-time Markov chains weakly converging to continuous diffusion processes, as well as for their perturbed counterparts. Under the assumption of bounded coefficients, we construct closely coupled versions of these processes on a shared probability space. In particular, for both non-degenerate and degenerate cases, we maximize the probability ...
Added: June 11, 2026
Strube M., Braud C., Hardmeier C. et al., Suzhou: Association for Computational Linguistics, 2025.
Added: June 11, 2026
Kh. Kh. Abdullin, D. B. Mokeev, D. S. Taletskii, Mathematical notes 2026 Vol. 119 No. 1 P. 3–7
By the Ramsey number R(K1,s,Pt) one means the least positive integer n such that, for every n-vertex graph G, the following condition holds: either G contains a vertex of degree at least s or the complement of G contains a simple t-path. In this paper, we fi nd precise values of R(K1,s,Pt) for certain values ...
Added: June 10, 2026
Sorokin D., Kostin A., Savchenko L. et al., Knowledge-Based Systems 2026 Vol. 348 Article 116258
A convenient approach to optimally solving combinatorial optimization tasks is the Branch-and-Bound method.
Its branching heuristic can be learned to solve a large set of similar tasks. The promising results here are
achieved by the recently appeared on-policy reinforcement learning method based on the tree Markov Decision
Process. To overcome its main disadvantages, namely, very large training time ...
Added: June 10, 2026
Namsaraev Z., Nanzatov B., Kozlova A. et al., Scientific Reports 2026 Vol. 16 No. 1 Article 17769
Distilled fermented milk beverages are rare in food technology, despite the global prevalence of plant-based spirits. Currently, the production of distilled strong alcoholic beverages from fermented milk using traditional technologies is known only among Mongolic-speaking peoples and their Siberian neighbors. This study provides the first interdisciplinary analysis of darasun, a traditional Buryat spirit made from fermented ...
Added: June 10, 2026
Butorova A., Bobakov V., Sergeev A. et al., European Physical Journal: Special Topics 2026 P. 1–19
This paper presents a review of artificial intelligence (AI) methods for failure prediction in data center cooling systems, with a focus on the integration of digital twins (DTs), physics-informed learning, and graph-based models. Positioned within complex network science, this review addresses a limitation of conventional graph approaches—their reliance on pairwise connectivity—whereas real-world failures often arise ...
Added: June 10, 2026
Shipilov F., Barnyakov A., Ivanov A. et al., / Series Physics "arxiv.org". 2026.
A fast simulation of the detector response is a vital task in high-energy physics (HEP). Traditional Monte-Carlo methods form the backbone of modern particle physics simulation software but are computationally expensive. We present a machine-learning-based approach to fast simulation of the Focusing Aerogel Ring Imaging Cherenkov (FARICH) detector response. Given a particle track and momentum, ...
Added: May 19, 2026
Dorovskiy A., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
In this paper the structural stability of generic families of vector fields of the PC-HC class on the two-dimensional sphere is proved. A classification of these families up to moderate equivalence in neighborhoods of their large bifurcation supports is presented, based on such invariants as the configuration and the characteristic set. The realization lemma is proved. ...
Added: May 14, 2026
Taletskii D., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
A vertex subset of a graph is called a \textit{distance-$k$ independent set} if the distance between any two of its distinct vertices is at least $k + 1$. For all $n,k \geq 1$, we determine the minimum possible number of inclusion-wise maximal distance-$k$ independent sets among all $n$-vertex trees. It equals~$n$ if $n \leq k ...
Added: May 1, 2026
Ovcharenko M., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
We introduce an explicit class of tempered Laurent polynomials in the sense of Villegas and Doran--Kerr in n⩽4 variables including all Landau--Ginzburg models for smooth Fano threefolds with very ample anticanonical class. We check that it contains Landau--Ginzburg models for various Fano fourfolds which are complete intersections in smooth toric varieties and Grassmannians of planes, ...
Added: April 30, 2026
Derkacheva A., Sakirkina M., Kraev G. et al., /. 2026.
Comprehensive data on natural hazards and their consequences are crucial for effective for risk assessment, adaptation planning, and emergency response. However, many countries face challenges with fragmented, inconsistent, and inaccessible data, particularly regarding local-scale events. To address this data gap in Russia, we developed an end-to-end processing pipeline that scrapes news from various online sources, ...
Added: April 28, 2026
Pilé I., Deng Y., Shchur L., / Series arXiv "math". 2026. No. 2604.10254.
We investigate the spatial overlap of successive spin configurations in Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations using the local Metropolis algorithm and the Svendsen-Wang and Wolff cluster algorithms. We examine the dynamics of these algorithms for two models in different universality classes: the Ising model and the Potts model with three components. The overlap of two ...
Added: April 20, 2026
Zlotnik Alexander, / Series arXiv "math". 2026. No. 2602.03481v1.
We deal with the global in time weak solutions to the 1D compressible Navier-Stokes system of equations for large discontinuous initial data and nonhomogeneous boundary conditions of three standard types. We prove the Lipschitz-type continuous dependence of the solution $(\eta,u,\theta)$, in a norm slightly stronger than $L^{2,\infty}(Q)\times L^2(Q)\times L^2(Q)$, on the initial data $(\eta^0,u^0,e^0)$ in a ...
Added: April 18, 2026
Medvedev V., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
We investigate the interplay between the dimension of the space of static potentials and the geometric and topological structure of the underlying static three-manifold. A partial classification of boundaryless static manifolds is obtained in terms of this dimension. We also treat the case of static manifolds with boundary. In particular, we prove that if a ...
Added: April 3, 2026
Gabdullin N., Androsov I., / Series Computer Science "arxiv.org". 2026.
Label prediction in neural networks (NNs) has O(n) complexity proportional to the number of classes. This holds true for classification using fully connected layers and cosine similarity with some set of class prototypes. In this paper we show that if NN latent space (LS) geometry is known and possesses specific properties, label prediction complexity can ...
Added: April 2, 2026
Мезенцев А. С., Ясницкий В. Л., Миролюбова Т. В. et al., В кн.: Искусственный интеллект в решении актуальных социальных и экономических проблем ХХI века : Сборник статей по материалам Десятой всероссийской научно-практической конференции с международным участием (г. Пермь, ПГНИУ, 9–10 октября 2025 г.).: Пермский государственный национальный исследовательский университет, 2025. С. 148–150.
На примере серийного производства стальных отливок показана возможность применения нейронных сетей в качестве системы поддержки принятия решений по снижению
отрицательных экономических последствий некоторых нештатных ситуаций, связанных
со сбоями поставок сырьевого материала.
Ключевые слова: нештатная ситуация, производственный брак, нейронная сеть, прогнозирование, сырьевой материал, моделирование ...
Added: February 15, 2026
Kolesnikov A., / Series arXiv "math". 2025.
We study Blaschke--Santal{ó}-type inequalities for N>=2 sets (functions) and a special class of cost functions. In particular, we prove new results about reduction of the maximization problem for the Blaschke--Santal{ó}-type functional to homogeneous case (functional inequalities on the sphere) and extend the symmetrization argument to the case of N>2 sets.
We also discuss links to the ...
Added: February 13, 2026
Соболев В. Н., Фролов А. А., Чебышевский сборник 2025 Т. 26 № 5 С. 203–220
In the article, on the class K 0 of infinite binary sequences without the runs of ones, a
consistent probability distribution P is constructed which is induced by a time-homogeneous
Markov chain with a one-step transition matrix P𝜑 , and is completely determined by the
golden ratio 𝜑. Using a Markov chain to construct a probability measure P ...
Added: February 11, 2026
Kopnova E., Журавлева К. А., Коряков И. В. et al., Журнал Белорусского государственного университета. Экономика 2025 № 1 С. 36–46
he article examines the prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and Belarus within the framework of the EAEU, SCO and BRICS integration associations, with an emphasis on the impact of sanctions and their consequences for the economic growth of the countries. The study includes the use of econometric modeling methods to evaluate the forecast of ...
Added: December 11, 2025
Kychkin A., Chernitsin I., Vikentyeva O., , in: 2025 International Conference on Industrial Engineering, Applications and Manufacturing (ICIEAM).: IEEE, 2025. P. 987–991.
Industry 4.0 concept focuses on sustainability problem that requires to control air emissions, especially for harmful substances like H2S, and reduction their impact on nature by using environmental monitoring and sources identification systems. This task requires solving inverse problem of dispersion models, which should establish complex mathematical dependences between the sensor data, the location and ...
Added: November 4, 2025
LePoire D., Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Journal of Big History 2025 Vol. 8 No. 3 P. 98–139
Building on foundational work in systems theory, thermodynamics, and evolutionary theory, this paper argues that complexity can serve as a conceptual bridge across disciplines. It explores the role of complexity dynamics in Big History through an integrative theoretical framework that spans physical, chemical, geological, biological, social, cognitive, and civilizational domains. By examining how complexity emerges, ...
Added: November 1, 2025
Smirnov S. V., Вопросы экономики 2025 № 10 С. 131–154
The paper summarizes machine-learning (ML) methods most relevant to macroeconomics and assesses their performance in forecasting and nowcasting key macro indicators. Despite rapid methodological progress and a surge of publications over the past 25 years, gains in forecast accuracy with traditional statistical (economic, financial, and survey) data remain modest. ML models often outperform naïve and ...
Added: October 12, 2025
Kychkin A., Chernitsin I., Vikentyeva O., , in: 2025 International Russian Automation Conference (RusAutoCon).: IEEE, 2025. P. 1046–1050.
This paper presents system architecture of the automated AI-driven predictive assessment of the ecological state of the air in sanitary protection zones around industrial facilities. The developed solution implements automated pre-processing of data presented in the form of time series using machine learning methods and the construction of short-term forecasts of pollutant concentrations for the ...
Added: October 6, 2025