?
Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates оn the Development of Malaria Parasite (Plasmodium vivax) in Moscow Megacity Region
The article presents the results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the changes of the
favorability of climatic conditions for the transmission of vivax malaria in the Moscow megacity
and its surroundings during the period from 1977 to 2016. Using the historical temperature records
at urban and rural weather stations, we calculated the key indicators of climate favorability for
malaria transmission, viz. the sum of effective temperatures, the duration of the season of effective
infectiveness, and a new integral index of climate favorability. We demonstrated a dramatic increase
of all three indicators, which accelerated after 1984, and a high spatial heterogeneity among them.
Due to the urban heat island effect, the degree of climatic favorability is especially high in the
densely urbanized areas of Moscow megacity compared with the suburban and rural areas. Climatic
conditions for vivax malaria in Moscow are better now than before. The season of effective
infectiveness continues in the central part of the city for 25 days longer, and the integral index of
climate favorability is 85% higher in comparison to mean values over the rural surroundings. The
study contains an alert regarding the risk of malaria resurgence in the Moscow region in the case of
the sufficient importation of cases from abroad.