Долговая политика России на современном этапе
The introduction of foreign economic sanctions fundamentally changed the
ability to attract foreign capital to the Russian economy. In such circumstances,
the most important task is to develop the domestic government and corporate
debt market. However, until now it shows lack of development both in terms
of the instruments used, as well as its depth and liquidity. The reasons lie, first
of all, in the fears, persisting from the time of the 1998 default, the inertia of
conservative budgetary policy. However, sanctions make it inevitable to overcome
such accumulative representations of the country’s financial authorities, require
the use of the instruments of the debt model of the economy to the fullest
extent. The article analyzes the priority measures that can expand the sources
of financial resources within the country and accelerate the formation of the
modern debt market.
In our research, we examine what macroeconomic factors determine and influence the credit cycle. In addition, our study contains four sections with theoretical and empirical parts, in which we describe how to measure credit cycles for developed and developing countries, and then introduce an important measure of the credit gap. Our results show a comparative analysis of credit cycles between different countries with different economic growth, and we have created an econometric model, which shows us the impact of macroeconomic factors according to the credit cycles for developing and developed economies.
Despite the impressive economic growth in Russia between 1999 and 2007, there is a fear that Russia may suffer the Dutch disease, which predicts that a country with large natural resource rents may experience a de-industrialisation and a lower long term economic growth. In this paper we study if there are any symptoms of the Dutch disease in Russia. Using a variety of Rosstat publications and the CHELEM database, we analyse the trends in production, wages and employment in the Russian manufacturing industries, and we study the behaviour of Russian imports and exports. We find that, while Russia exhibits some symptoms of the Dutch disease, e.g. the real appreciation of the rouble, the rise in real wages, the decrease in employment in manufacturing industries and the development of the services sector, the manufacturing production nonetheless increased, contradicting the theory of the Dutch disease. These trends can be explained by the gains in productivity and the recovery after the disorganisation in the 1990s, by new market opportunities for Russian products in the European Union and in CIS countries, by a growing Chinese demand for some products and by a booming internal market. Finally, investments in many manufacturing industries were largely encouraged, whereas those in the energy sector were strongly regulated, which contributed to the economic diversification.
Russia’s transition to a market economy was accompanied by several monetary regime changes of the Bank of Russia (BoR) and even different policy goals. In this context we should mention the transformation of the exchange rate regime from managed floating to free floating (since November 2014) and several changes of the monetary regimes (exchange rate targeting, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting). As a measurement of changes in Russian monetary policy in 2008–2018 we develop a Monetary policy index (MPI). We focus on key monetary policy instruments: interest rates (key rate, liquidity standing facilities and standing deposit facilities rates), amount of REPO operations, BoR foreign exchange operations and required reserve ratio on credit institutions` liabilities. Our investigation provides a practical contribution to the discussion of Russian monetary regimes by creating a new MPI adopted to the conditions in Russia and enlarges the discussion of appropriate monetary policy regimes in transition and emerging countries.
The historical changes in Central and Eastern Europe demanded suitable paths for the transition from centrally planned to market based economies. The lack of relevant experience added to the challenge, giving rise to the incalculable risks of implementing untested policies. By focusing on monetary policy, trade, and convergence, this volume addresses some of the most urgent economic policy issues in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe and beyond.
The author traces the analysis evolution of the monetary shocks effects on the economy, exploring the key approaches to modeling of the monetary transmission mechanism. The article emphasizes the necessity of the monetary transmission mechanism modification in the conditions of current financial crisis: the active role reflection of the financial intermediaries, accounting of the development degrees of institutional capacity in the economy.
This paper analyzes a stylized model of an export-oriented economy. It investigates the impact of macroeconomic policies on the dynamics of the exchange rate, inflation, output and stabilization fund and consider different forms of strategic interaction between the government and the central bank. It is shown that the effective interaction of fiscal and monetary policies is possible under Stackelberg interaction with the government as leader and under cooperation.