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Article

Модель эволюции предпочтений

Вопросы экономики. 2020. № 8. С. 82-94.

Abstract

Evolution of political preferences occurs under the influence of institutions and some other factors. The term “political” was chosen just for concreteness and brevity of exposition. The results can be easily extended to some other social preferences and supporting institutions. In this model at the setup an individual joins a party but as time progresses she adjusts her endogenous political views accordingly with her utility function. Dynamics governing changes are provided by a partial differential equation similar to a diffusion equation. Party allegiance changes are random and they take the form similar to mutations in biology. The steady-state distributions on the political spectrum interval can be described by the Airy functions. Initial uniform distribution of individuals on the political spectrum interval is influenced by the governing party and the two political groups that emerge in society (“left” and “right’ political movements). Finally distribution becomes three peaked with the maximum distribution values coinciding with the formally declared political doctrines of the institutions. In the steady-state the share of the central party members will relatively increase compared with the other individuals.

Key words: evolution of preferences, political doctrine, steady-state distribution, eigenvalues problem.